Politics, Society & Things

I Tweet, Therefore I Am!

2011-12-30T14:40:00.004+03:00

I Tweet, Therefore I am!

January Makamba - @JMakamba

All politicians have a common need: a friendly platform to communicate their ideas, to rationalize their actions, to defend themselves and, a favourite pastime, to attack each other.

Technology has made modern combat lethal, yet impersonal. Gone are the days of the Ngoni warrior up-close battles when the smell of your enemy lingers with you for as long as you lick your wounds or bask in triumph. With technology, you can kill with precision from 45,000 feet up above the skies - in the comfort of a Nintendo-like console.

Likewise with political communication. Technology has made public discourse so impersonal that you can now manage to debate, to offend, to dazzle or make a fool of yourself all in 140 characters – all from the comfort of your bedroom, boardroom, or even bathroom.

Here I am talking about Twitter, a powerful social media platform which no politician worth his or her salt can ignore. Presidents, Kings, Prime Ministers, celebrities and all sorts of journeymen are on it. Twitter has been so lionized lately to a point of suggestion that it facilitates revolutions.

In Tanzania, in recent years, and within a small but important circle of individuals, it has spiced up and opened a new venue for public discourse. But that has not come without pain and pleasure and without annoyance and great rewards.

I joined Twitter reluctantly after a good friend of mine - @chiume - decided to open an account for me in September 2010. And my handle is a safe and uncreative @JMakamba. Also, another good friend of mine - @zittokabwe – who is also a Member of Parliament and who has been active on Twitter for a while, inspired me. Before then, I was a Facebook boy and had figured that nothing could beat the illusory psychotherapy and awesome voyeurism in the Facebook prompt: “What’s on your mind?’

But I was wrong. Twitter proved to be a big hit for me for its sheer power of compelling you to reveal who you really are – no matter how long you try to pretend. It forces slips into honesty and true identity. My experience on twitter has been quite good. As a public figure, you will necessarily have a lot of people who want to hear what you have to say. Questions come in rapid fire - and on matters public and personal. Some with presumptions and insults, some with sincere desire for information and insight. I have learnt the hard way to treat all questions with the presumption of sincerity. I haven’t always been successful. The good thing about Twitter is that it empowers people on it to directly confront their politicians with their questions and ideas without the protocols and formalities. Some have abused this access but to a large extent twitter engagements are civil.

As a politician, you learn to accept and deal with both blame and praise, with ridicule and adoration – it comes with the territory. Because of impersonal nature of social media, questions and confrontations on twitter can be quite bold, visceral, unreasonable and irritating. I have seen colleagues in politics lose their cool on twitter upon provocation. I also have had to tell one gentleman to “get a life” after making a whole lot of meal out of lack of a certain information he thought should have been in the CCM website. One thing is certain on Twitter debates: you cannot win an argument there. And you must not attempt to. You debate on Twitter not with the view of changing someone’s mind but to state and put your views on record.

As a public personality, people read your words carefully. And mainstream press has in recent days been digging for news and quotes from Twitter and Facebook feeds. It places a huge burden to be forced to be always serious and careful on such an informal platform. But somehow Twitter offers this sense of security that it is alright to be frivolous at times, to be emotional in public, and that you must not always take yourself too seriously.

Some of us in politics have massive egos, and flashes of those can be evident on Twitter. You somehow expect those you follow to follow you back. In some cases, that doesn't happen. Depending on the size of your ego, you may take offense. I've learnt not to - and even not to ask for a follow back.

Civil society activists and entertainment industry people dominate twitter in Tanzania – not necessarily by their numbers but by the frequency and intensity of their tweets. As a Tanzanian politician on Twitter, you are more likely to be engaged by civil society activists. In many cases, they will not be asking questions but will be telling you what you should be doing or what is important or how bad things in the country are or, on occasion, peddling the latest negative report on whatever issue they are working on. That is understandable as the “industry” survives on a negative tone.

In general, Twitter can be like a family – and there are a variations of names to affirm this: twifam, twam, twitfam, etc. You start your day with an understanding of the moods of those you follow. You know people without really knowing them. Much as you may resist, you feel obliged to share news – good or bad, to offer sympathy, and to rejoice in the success of others. You witness fights and take sides – even quietly. You search for encryption keys to cryptic tweets. And you become nosy, digging up threads of conversations that have nothing to do with you. And you rejoice in a retweet as if it is an affirmation of your wit or wisdom.

Twitter has also been a good source of news and information for me. Somehow someone on twitter has updates on happenings around town: be it traffic updates, Dar floods, fuel crisis and so forth. And, depending on who or what you follow, you can get a very good aggregate of all news you need – sometimes as they break. I am personally interested in economic development issues and follow a lot of development people and organizations – and, from twitter, everyday I read some interesting reports, updates and news on development issues.

Twitter can also be a place to make real-life connections with people, create friendships and work for common objectives. I have met a lot of interesting people whom we have made connections through twitter. Few highlights includes during my recent trip to India when I tweeted Shashi Tharoor - @shashitharoor – former United Nations Assistant Secretary General, candidate for UN Secretary General post, and currently India’s foremost intellectual and Member of Parliament, and managed to meet and have a good long chat about global politics and development. I also tracked down my old friend Uhuru Kenyatta - @UKenyatta – Kenya’s Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister and had breakfast with him in Kampala early this year because he tweeted that he will be there. Through twitter, I got an intern, Economic Development student from Stanford University in California USA, who did fantastic work with the Bumbuli Development Corporation (BDC) last summer. Through twitter, I hired a PA and Administrator for BDC. I have managed to meet so many different people through Twitter and collaborate in undertaking worthy endeavours.

In the end, twitter, just like any other social media, is just a platform. The key is content. We must not celebrate politicians just for being on it – as is often the case – but for how they use it, and how and what they communicate. If you just come on Twitter to post links to your statements on your website, as one politician I know, then just don’t be on it at all. Twitter certainly doesn’t work as a propaganda platform as most people on it are somehow immune to propaganda.

One of the weaknesses of some of us in politics is that we always calculate and peg our actions in terms of votes and elections. Surely, if I am to run again for MP for Bumbuli, I will not be reelected because I am on Twitter or because of things I say on it. And most of my constituents, with almost zero access to the internet, are not on twitter. So, in terms of electoral calculus, I shouldn’t be on Twitter. But I have made a decision that I cannot afford to miss the opportunity to be intellectually challenged, to be quizzed, to be informed, to be annoyed, and to understand the psyche of the urbane and sophisticated segment of Tanzanians who are on Twitter. And I cannot afford to miss the chance to engage the global citizenry that follow Tanzania.

Moral of the story: tweet!
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January Makamba is a Member of Parliament for Bumbuli constituency, Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Minerals, and CCM Secretary for Political Affairs and International Relations. He tweets using @JMakamba.

"Who Killed Zinjanthropus?"

2011-11-26T13:14:00.004+03:00

TEDxDar 2011 Presentation by January Makamba

Time for a Technocrat President in Tanzania?

2011-11-14T10:04:00.001+03:00

We have tried a middle of the road type of a socialism that never truly worked. Behind it was an exemplary idealist and once in a generation leader in Mwalimu. Four years into his retirement, Berlin Wall fell; with it, 31 years of socio-economic experiment came to an end—with mixed results. Tanzania is a unified republic with a clear national identity; albeit with unperfected union. At 50 years old, Tanzania’s potential for human development is yet to be realized, the increasing income inequality (the fallacy of 7% growth) is squandering away the social capital that Mwalimu and Mzee Mwinyi had accrued. It has yet been clear to our governments that embracing untamed and imported neoliberal economic policies will not only wreck havoc to our fortunes, but also threatening our social fabric. The 2008 financial crisis was largely caused by income inequality*. Nevertheless, previous Tanzania’s government embraced the market economy wholeheartedly, though in some cases it was imposed upon us. If 17% of your budget is beyond your means, there goes your sovereignty—on everything. But I will argue that our embracing of bad economic policies is mainly caused by a misinformed leadership at helm more than anything.

For starters, our government is a massive, slow bureaucracy that is also inefficient. As it is, our government incentivizes her inefficiency—which sustains the crisis. The longer it takes for your passport to be issued, increases your likeliness to bribe. Why should the passport manager hurry up to issue you a passport? This is the model of our government from bottom-up. Its pretty shitty. No private company would be able to survive under this model. Too bad citizens are not allowed to shop for governments of their residence. That would be the perfect market solution to punish our lousy governments. Surprisingly, national dialogue on development continues to bypass the fundamental flaw of our country, an ancient governing model. As I pointed earlier, this too is the leadership problem.

Tanzanians have always elected career politicians for the presidency. Mzee Mwinyi, Mzee Mkapa, and currently Jakaya Kikwete were all career politicians prior to the presidency. Even opposition parties also nominated career politicians. Dr. Slaa is the embodiment of a career politician, so as Prof Lipumba (by virtue of running more than twice). Folks who after decades of running sections of the inefficient bureaucracy have convinced themselves that, only they have the wisdom to take us to the promise land. But they almost always underperform. To me, this is a manifestation of their lack of policy knowledge, and lack of understanding of intricate ways of the barbarous globalized economy. I am not saying wonkish president will save us, few politicians are wonkier than Bill Clinton and yet he repealed Glass-Steagall Act . I am saying that, the next election might be the appropriate time to elect wonkish president, because for our government to work for the people, it needs a leader who has intimate knowledge of how to reform a demented institution with 6 billion dollars budget. Career politicians do not possess such knowledge. More than anything, he will increase the size of it all to accommodate all his political allies he accumulated over the years. In Italy and Greece, career politicians have all retired leaving the position for more technocratic Prime Ministers. The ground is shifting beneath us.

The next presidential election in Tanzania, might be of the most important for this generation. We still have our social fabric intact, which is vastly needed for any growth; but we do not know how long this fabric will remain intact—with the increasing income inequality**. We will need the president who can best articulate the policy prescription to our government so that she can live within her means, while also protecting the society from the externalities generated by our investors. We ought to look for the leader who can dare to create an income inequality that would benefit the poorest, bridging the technological gap, and reform our rather messed up education system. To get that kind of a leader will require political parties to nominate for more technocrat candidates and shy away from the good ole names that we have been used to hear for decades.

*****

* Stagnant incomes of Americans, made subprime mortgage a trillion dollar industry. Basically, a trillion dollar of garbage loans that did not qualify for government backed security.

**Arab awakening is the results of income inequality that is threatening social fabrics of these countries. Tanzania can be next.

The Flexibility of Bongo Flava!

2011-11-01T00:36:00.002+03:00

Dushelele and Hakunaga are equally catchy songs and are destroying competition in Dar as we are speaking. I don't know about The Runway crowd, but when these two songs are blasted in Masai Club Kinondoni or Billicanas, the crowd goes nuts. Yaani usipime kabisa. However, none of these two songs are originally Tanzanian sound. Suma Lee in Hakunaga is playing into the resurgence of Kwaito music in Bongo, and the whole Shafo dancing style. Ali Kiba with ManWalter are more chaneling our obsession with that Congolese Sound. I am not sure if there is originality in Bongo Flavas anymore, but these two songs in a right atmosphere are ridiculously entertaining.

Dushele-Ali Kiba

Hakunaga-Suma Lee

Recollecting New Orleans

2011-10-11T09:55:00.004+03:00

It’s a laid back place; there is casual sense of urgency. The air is thick, and the sun is shining throughout the year. Her indignant are a unique alloy of diverse pool of people. They have all kinds of blood. There is sound of music everywhere, everyday, all the time. Music leaves here; you will find children moving around with their textbook bags and trumpets on their hands. There is always a distinct sound that follows you everywhere you go. For those who come to visit, you can call them tourists; this is a carefree environment. Where folks choose to retire their orderliness and pursue a lifestyle free of constraints. Liberty at its purest form resides in New Orleans. For those who reside here, this is their way of life.

People here do not need reasons to celebrate. The biggest Halloween party I have ever been stretches over 6 blocks of Frenchmenn Street packed with people on all kinds of costumes. The party will go on all night. On Mexican Independence Day, St. Charles Ave & Antoine Street shuts down and folks party up more than those in Mexico City. There is a weekend of French Quarter Festival which is one of my favorite; live music, good food, and booze at the bank of Mississippi river on the edges of The Quarters. Every Wednesday evening at Lafayette square, locals get a treat of live music and good food—and there is no cover charge. Just show up. St. Patrick’s Day brings out a little Irish in everybody. Although the city is known for its major events like Mardi Grass and Jazz Festival, there are small festivals which take place throughout the year that are equally entertaining. With a little encroachment from those tourists.

You see, you can catch good music at Soul Rebel in Magazine Street, maybe random concert at Tipitina any day of the week. Speaking of Magazine Street, although upscale-ish it resides most comprehensives restaurant and booze joints in the city. Wide selections of beer at The Bulldog, drunken- greasy food at Balcony Bar, and maybe random chilling/sport bars of Rendezvous and Tracies. You can't go wrong with Rum House's Tacos; But the true gem in Magazine Street is The Bridge’s Lounge. A hipster place which also hosts a variety of good music and a diverse crowd of young urbanites. Heading downtown, in central business district and lower garden district are few gems worthy exploring. Many bars in this area are full of Abercrombie & Fitch crowd. The Fraternity crowd extends from The Republic, RedEye, and Lucys. But one joint stands out from the fraternity crowd, 12 Bar on Fulton has been one of my favorite in central business—also Whisky Blue at The W lounge, and LePhare on Gravier St have always been a perfect pre-game pubs.

Mid-City is rather quiet and more residential, but don’t get it twisted. Best fried chicken in the world is at Ms Willie Mae’s restaurant, while best Po-Boys in town are at Parkway Bakery; both located in Mid-City. The best brass band experience in the city is at Candlelight, also in Mid-City, coming with complimentary NOLA’s signature red beans and rice. Every Wednesday night candlelight is lively with brass band music, and you can swiftly transition to Dragons Den’s to cap the night in a reggae club with DJ T.Roy. Mid-city also host the iconic Finns McCool pub, here is where you can catch a live Arsenal game—sipping a fresh Guinness at 9 am. That is how many Saturdays usually start. And Arsenal disappoints most of the time.

The quarters are fun and always crowded, Bourbon being Bourbon, is the epitome of it all. Not being the biggest fan of the quarters, but it remains the center of entertainment in New Orleans. Best brunch joint on weekends at Café Amelie on Royal Street. Probably the best street in the Quarter is Royal, with its mix of residential/restaurant/artistry stores. I caught The Wailers at the legendary House of Blues on Decatur Street. Stretching the Quarters further, you will find Frenchmenn Street, which is always musical. You can catch Little Fred King live at DBA, Brass-A-Hollic at Maison, and a Mannie Fresh concert at Maison’s penthouse. Frenchmenn also host reggae nights on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday at Dragons Den, Blue Nile, and Café Negril respectively. A very old form of European Jazz and blues is at display at The Spotted Cat, while in Frenchmenn Street, Vaso is always worthy of exploration. You can show up to Frenchmenn at 2 am in Tuesday morning, and you will have fun. Stretching further away from Frenchmenn is Marigny area—and there is Mimis pub located in this part of NOLA. Saturdays night is full of 70s and 80s funk music under the watchful eye of Dj Soul Sista. The Orange Couch coffee shop is also located in this area. Whenever you are in need of a quiet work time, this is the ultimate coffee shop to get work done.

The city is not the same, compared to its pre-Katrina days, but it is definitely not dead. As the matter of fact, very few folks in the city talk about Katrina anymore. Although the population has vastly decreased and low income communities are pushed away from their housings near city center. The City continues to be a distinct place and there is no place like New Orleans. My most memorable NOLA moment began when The Saints won Super Bowl, followed by Saints parade, and Mardi Grass shortly followed; it was crazy!

Remarks by January Makamba at CEO Roundtable Dinner - 13 September, 2011

2011-09-15T18:38:00.002+03:00

Remarks by January Makamba at CEO Roundtable Dinner - 13 September, 2011

Friends, Ladies and Gentlemen,

I would like to thank the membership of CEO Roundtable for your kind invitation to join you for this dinner and speak before you.

I thank you Ali – for your stewardship of this important forum, and as one of thought leaders in business and society.

You have asked me to speak on two very important issues. Electricity and Fuel. These two issues are complex and multifaceted – and greatly implicate the wellbeing of our country.

It is therefore always a challenge, given the time we have, to exhaust all facets of any of these issues, let alone all. So, I will focus on just a few dimensions that are relevant to as many of us as possible.

I will spend more time on energy – as I know that is of particular interest to most of you. And in this respect I would like to recognise your statement made in July, which not only delivered concrete ideas on how to deal with the crisis but also improved the quality of the energy debate – quality which hitherto had been so wanting.

I would hope that these kinds of dialogue – between government and private sector, between Members of Parliament and business community will continue – as we strive to make our country better.

First, what is the situation now? I don’t need to tell you this, but for many years now, the electricity that is generated has not been meeting the demand. In addition, we have not been able to ascertain and plan for the actual demand for power in this country. Still, not being able to meet the demand for only 14 percent of households, for these many years, speaks for the challenge we have in the sector. Anyway, this is another debate, but if we are talking about power shortage as a crisis, then we have really been in a permanent crisis.

According to the Energy Minister’s report in Parliament last month, the installed generation capacity in the country is 1,102MW. For a country of 43 million people, this is a very small amount. As of last month, according to the same report, production at all sources was 623MW. Therefore, as we speak, 479MW that we previously had in the grid is now off grid. This is about 40 percent of the capacity. The current crisis is deeper perhaps because this is a record amount of power to go off the grid. For there to be no load-shedding, we need to add at least 300MW back to the grid.

You obviously have read about what transpired in Parliament last month that led to the initiation of the current emergency measures to deal with the current crisis. My assessment of the plan here tonight is with clear understanding that some of the measures promised are ongoing, but also I recognize that there were milestones to be met before December, including statements made by the Minister last week that there will be movements and relief this week, relief that has so far not materialized. And indeed some of us are duty bound to speak up when we see the public losing trust and confidence in public officials.

So, what entails in the current Emergency Plan?

In short, there are two phases of the Plan. First phase: between July – December, where a total of 572MW is aimed to be added into the grid through additional generation from existing Symbion (37MW) and IPTL (80MW) plants, and introduction of 100MW from Aggreko, 205MW from new Symbion contract, 150MW from NSSF.

Aiming to add 572MW in a matter of four months is quite bold and ambitious. I was excited when it was presented in the Parliament because this kind of ambition and boldness is what I have been calling for. But I was – and I remain – cautiously optimistic. We have seen many broken promises before, most recently the one to generate 260MW by July – a plan that was approved in the cabinet in February but has not materialized up to today.

Nevertheless, we know that the 37MW Symbion generation will be done. We know that Aggreko is already here – because they started the process early during the year (although they were supposed to deliver on August 15). And we all know the story of IPTL – running out of fuel every so often. So, what we are guaranteed by December is at least 137MW.

The 205MW from Symbion is still a “story” as contract has not been signed yet as we speak. Story goes that it is at EWURA waiting for approval. And here lies another question: as a regulator of utility, at what point exactly does EWURA supposed to be involved in power projects? From contract negotiations – as an enforcer of good contracts? Or, during tariff application process – as an enforcer of tariff generated from “prudently incurred costs”? So, while people in government are mentioning Symbion as a solution, Symbion has not yet shipped the plant because I don’t think any businessman would mobilize a $300m equipment without a contract. I still retain confidence that this, in the end, will be done – not so much as a result of urgency in the government bureaucracy, but for the sheer persistence and need for certainty from equipment supplier and contractor.

The 150MW from NSSF – I know I will be unpopular for saying this: but you can forget about it, at least during this year. They promised to deliver 150MW by December with foggy idea of where they are going to get the plant, and where in Dar es Salaam they are going to install it. They relied on word from people who didn’t have even offices, and I heard that a team of 9 people from NSSF and other government institutions went to the United States (why 9 people? I really don’t know) and found nothing. Now, there is yet another word that there is a plant in France – and a team of people is going there again tomorrow to have a look – and do “due diligence”. But this Paris plant is, first, of less than 150MW and, secondly, of Frame Six type – which is technically complex and takes minimally eight months to install. So, it will not be here before Christmas – if in fact that is what they choose to go with. In any case, one expects that NSSF, as a public institution, will procure this plant through a tender process, which again complicates the matter.

So, again this is phase one of emergency plan. What is the cost? 523 billion shillings. What will be TANESCO’s revenues? 115 billion. Deficit: 408 billion. How will it be funded? Through commercial loans. But who will be willing to lend money to TANESCO? None that I know. Therefore, we will most certainly rely on a government guarantee. Now, we just have to be honest with ourselves. This is not just a loan guarantee for TANESCO. This is straight loan to the government. And it will be serviced through taxpayers’ money. And there is an injustice here. 86 percent of households do not have electricity, but through the taxes they also pay, they are in effect subsidizing those 14 percent of us who enjoy it.

Another feature of the financing of this plan is that the payments will be in foreign currency. Power producers are paid in foreign currency and fuel to run these generators are imported by foreign currency. Given the magnitude of the payment – if you add phase two of the Plan, which comes to 1.2 trillion shillings – the plan will have implications on balance of payment, foreign currency reserves and strength of the shilling. So, measures will have to be taken so that these expensive emergency power plans do not come at the expense of the stability of the economy.

For the Second Phase of Emergency Plan – running from January to December 2012, there are three projects, which will aim to bring additional 460MW into the grid. Jacobsen Gas Plant in Ubungo, Semco HFO Plant in Nyakato Mwanza, and another Jacobsen Plant of 150MW in Dar es Salaam as well. The interesting thing about these projects is that the first two were supposed to be finished this year – but they are now termed as emergency plans for next year.

And secondly, there are serious issues of fuel to run these plants. As it is today, there is no enough gas to run the existing gas plants. The earliest time that you can deliver gas to Dar, given the existing gas infrastructure upgrade plans, will be the first quarter of 2013. So, in essence, you will have 250MW of plants sitting idle as white elephants.

I think that it is scandalous to have ordered this Jacobsen gas plant for $124m almost two years ago, and not plan for the gas to run it. There is a talk that once it arrives, the gas currently used by Symbion to produce 75MW will be diverted to this plant and Symbion will run on Jet A1. That is fine, but it does not, and should not, absolve some people at TANESCO and the Ministry for poor planning – and compelling the nation into an expensive proposition.

Of course, they may have ordered dual-fuel plants – meaning that they can fire them using liquid fuel as well as gas. But, if you consider that the entire 572MW of generation between now and December is supposed to use expensive imported liquid fuels, this will mean for more than a year, our country will be generating a total of 1,032MW using imported liquid fuels. This is next to impossible to sustain.
To conclude on the emergency plans, my general view about the emergency plans is that while they are necessary at times, they cannot be something we resort to every time. You can’t be in an emergency for five years – as five years is enough time to sort out a permanent solution. Emergency power should be a bridging power, a temporary solution to give you space to find a permanent solution. My hope, which I expressed in the Parliament, is that this will be the last emergency plan.

And ideas on permanent solutions are plenty. This is a country blessed with almost all sources of energy in plentiful: gas, coal, hydro sources, wind, solar, and geothermal. It is scandalous for a country such as ours to generate grid electricity using expensive imported liquid fuels. The question to ask is why, for instance, we don’t have a single coal plant despite massive amounts of coal in the country. I am sure you have read about these many plans, some in the books since 1980s. I do not intend to review them here.

But I want to say that the main issue is planning. In energy, nothing is more important than planning. And, in energy planning, 10 years is short term. I just hope that our planners have thoroughly thought beyond December 2012, and 2014 when some of these rental contracts will expire and generation will go off the grid.

So, what do I propose as way forward?

1. Sort out TANESCO –

For better or for worse, TANESCO sits squarely at the centre of energy problems or solutions in this country. It is a massive utility that is very impressive on paper. Last year, it booked 500bn revenue. It has operating capital of more than $1bn, and assets worth more than a couple of billion dollars. And it has the capacity to triple its revenue and assets in just five years. Few companies in Tanzania, both private and public, can match these numbers. But TANESCO is not performing as it should – constantly in the red, and having to be subsidised by government. In many other countries, utility companies are blue chips – whose stocks are hot. I remain confident that TANESCO can be the same.

If we can transform TANESCO to what it can be, we may start to see light at the end of the tunnel. But the government will have to figure out what it wants to do with TANESCO. All of us can help to put pressure for the right structure and role for TANESCO.

There have been so many ideas – and so many studies - about the right structure and role for TANESCO. The most popular one is splitting it into three functional and business units.

But the question is: split it and then what? Do you split it but still keep the units in government hands? Or do you privatise all the units or not? Perhaps only one or two? And if so, which ones exactly?

I am in favour of the Kenyan model. TANESCO has too many functions. It generates power, it runs the grid, buys power from IPPs, it owns and operates transmission and distribution system, and it supplies electricity. These are complex functions for one organisation at this point in time. And with the law permitting IPPs and competition in the industry, one can conclude that there is anti-competition environment in the industry. TANESCO should not be negotiating tenders with firms it is by law supposed to compete with – and may one day compete with.

Henceforth, I would say split TANESCO into three functional and business units and issue IPOs for its units. I can guarantee that they will be oversubscribed and you will get all the money you need to invest in energy. Transmission unit will have to be largely owned by government initially – given the big differential between investment and margins. Of course, this is not panacea because the principles of running a business will still have to be adhered to whether you have one or three units, or whether it is a publicly traded company or a parastatal. But at least you will guarantee focus on each business and functional unit. You will also guarantee pressure from shareholders for transparency, better management, better business decisions and accountability for failure – critical elements that are missing at the moment in TANESCO.

In the end, the maturity of business culture and environment will be critical in the success of this idea. The quality of service of each unit will depend on the efficiency of the other unit. Therefore, there ought to exist commercial discipline that ensures that all three units of the industry – generation, distribution and transmission – are legally bound to honour their obligations to each other. The beauty though is that once you get to a level where you have multiple firms in each unit, competition for high performance will arise and end-users will be able to choose who to do business with.

In the meantime, as it is today, TANESCO can and should be able to make sound business and management decisions – only if politicians stop to be its manager and spokesperson.

A lot of us – and even TANESCO – has been talking a lot about putting new power plants to ease the crisis. But electricity is beyond generators. What about repairing transmission and distribution systems that are currently not in good shape?

For instance, last year alone, mainly because of poor transmission and distribution infrastructure, TANESCO lost 21 percent of power it produced and/or bought. This lost electricity amounted to more than 1,200 GWhr – which is more than all electricity used in factories and businessplaces for the entire year, and amounted to about 75 percent of all electricity bought from Songas in the entire year. These are massive losses – which, if curbed, in themselves would have helped with the power situation. But TANESCO will need to invest in Repair and Maintenance for this to be possible. And we know that this is not happening. While it is required by best [utility] industry practice to spend 12 percent of revenue on Repair and Maintenance, TANESCO spent only 2.8 percent of its revenue on R and M between 2005-2008 – and result is lots of broken transformers and service lines and a huge amount of lost electricity.

2. Make it easy for private investment in energy sector

One of the things I hear the most when I talk to businesspeople is how difficult it is to do business in Tanzania – particularly to invest in energy sector. I am told of people who had come here keen on investing on energy but simply could not bear the red tape and the uncertainty. But what I don’t understand is why and how we make it so difficult for people to come in and invest in a sector we so desperately need. The last non-rental private investment in energy in Tanzania was in 2004 – seven years ago. And the last three plants to be built in Tanzania were by the government.
Now, if electricity generation pays – both for private investors and for TANESCO – as it surely does when gas is the fuel, why should the government spend billions of shillings in taxpayer’s money to buy generators?

As it is now, there is no power investment guideline – both in terms of process and basis for PPA negotiations – for investors to rely on. Energy deals are structured so differently depending on how desperate the energy situation is at the time, and permits and approvals depends on the depth of your contacts and the kind of pressure or incentives you are able to put.

This must change. Power projects are complex. Private investors commit a big number of people – some up to 30, lawyers and financial people and so on – in a single project just to get the project to take off. And over here, you have few people who are so scattered across government – TIC, BRELA, NEMC, TRA, EWURA, TANESCO, and Ministry of Energy – and who have so many other things to deal with such that these projects do not receive the needed attention.

I believe that planning and overseeing fast execution of power projects should be coordinated at the very top level of leadership of the country, with absolutely no tolerance for delays and excuses. In Nigeria, President Goodluck Jonathan has formed, and chairs, the Presidential Action Committee on Power (PACP) which consists of Ministers and Heads of Agencies that have a critical role to play in Nigeria’s power sector. It acts like a “War Cabinet” for Nigeria’s power sector, setting policy and granting expedited approvals for critical decisions. The PACP meets every Tuesday, yes, every week! This ensures that issues connected to the power sector enjoy priority attention at the highest level of government. I think we ought to do something like that here given the gravity of the situation – and importance of energy to the economy.

3. Sort out gas issue

Gas, which we have plenty of – and plenty more onshore for the future, is critical for the permanent solution to the power crisis.
So, it is critically important that we sort the fuel question. Why? Because, even if you are able to airlift a 300MW gas power plant to Dar today, you will get Zero power as there is simply no gas. It is not that there isn’t enough natural gas in the country. It is just that we haven’t planned well to extract and get it to where the generators are at critical moment.

As it is today, in this coming year, we will produce more power from very expensive imported fuel than from cheap gas which we already have in the country.
If you consider when gas was discovered and wells we dug in Songosongo, we are 20 years behind in gas utilisation. If we had planned better in terms of gas infrastructure, today 70 percent of our power generation would have been coming from gas. Given the desperate situation we are in today, everyone is talking about gas infrastructure project or a gas power plant. This is good but it requires better planning and coordination. There ought to be coordination on who is doing what and when, and at the same time analysing the implications of all these efforts on price and availability of power. A Gas Master Plan is badly needed.

4. Sort out tariff issue

We seriously need to look at the electricity tariff structure. No doubt that TANESCO could do better to manage its cost of service. But we need to decide in this country whether electricity is a business or a subsidized service. The current tariff is not commercially viable. The government recognizes that the current tariff does not work. That is the reason it is subsidizing to the tune of 5bn shillings per year a private company in Mtwara to sell electricity at a price equal to TANESCO’s.

Not only does the current tariff hurt TANESCO’s balance sheet and its repair and maintenance capabilities, it also discourages private investment in energy sector, particularly in alternative energy. For instance, for solar generation to be commercially viable, the tariff has to be in the upwards of 20 cents (mostly because of the heavy initial investment).

Some may say that it is impossible for the majority of people to afford higher tariff. I don’t believe so. Look at how much Tanzanians are spending on phone airtime. The current tariff structure is such that TANESCO sells power at the more or less the same rate to end-users, regardless of whether it is to a barber shop in Namanga or to a Barrick Gold Mine in North Mara. The tariff should be dynamic and flexible given the volatility in the fuel prices and different capacities of TANESCO customers. There are those who will be willing to pay higher tariff as long as power is steady and reliable. For instance, with industries, power, even at higher price, features insignificantly to the cost of production; but when it is NOT available it is a very significant contribution to losses.

4. Coal, Wind, Solar and Geothermal

Ambition and innovation can – and should – be brought to fore to exploit the four critical sources of energy (coal, wind, solar, and geothermal) that we have in plenty, and which other countries are producing huge amounts of electricity from. There is absolutely no excuse that, as it stands today, all these sources – cheap and plentiful – are not being used to produce electricity.

Coal powered industrial revolution in many developed countries. We have it in plenty – in Ngaka, Mchuchuma, Kiwira and other places. Coal is so cheap that, even if you ferry it in ships from South Africa to generate electricity in Dar es Salaam, that electricity may still be cheaper than the one we are going to produce using diesel.

I am happy that at least there are two companies in Tanzania exploring the possibility of producing electricity through wind. We need to move fast the approval processes.

On solar, few companies have come in to express interest in putting up solar farms – and produce up to 300MW. The issue, of course, with renewable has always been the high tariff. But one company that has such big solar projects in different parts of the world presented a proposal to sell solar power to TANESCO at 25 cents per KW. But we said it is too expensive – which is true because TANESCO sells power at about 10 cents. But then again, we are now buying power from some companies at about 37 cents, power generated from fuels which we import through foreign currency!

Geothermal energy is generated from steam resulting from underground volcanic activity – steam that run turbines to produce power. Many countries with underground volcanic fields – Iceland being the leading one – are producing electricity. Kenya is. There is no reason we shouldn’t. We have more volcanic fields, the Rift Valley, a case in point – and therefore higher potential – than Kenya, but Kenya decided that, by 2018, 50 percent of its electricity will be produced through geothermal. And 25 percent of this year’s Kenya’s energy budget has been set for development of geothermal power. Of course there is a huge initial cost of exploration of fields that discourages the private sector investment. What Kenya has done, and what we ought to do, is establish geothermal authority, in which government funds exploration, and put proven fields to tender. The outcome is that those who win tender even reimburse the government for exploration costs. This we must do.

I want to end up here on energy issue, as there are simply too many things to talk about – things that we may take up as we interact later.

Fuel Crisis:

Very briefly on fuel crisis: The nation almost went to a standstill weeks ago when a new price announcement by EWURA resulted into protest by OMCs. It was embarrassing both for the government and for EWURA, causing great inconvenience to the people and businesses. This is what I know:

1. In a new indicative price formula that EWURA used, the platts (base) price for diesel that EWURA used was for a cheaper, high-in-sulphur diesel type that we don’t import anymore (5000ppm). So, that led to an arrival in lower indicative price.

2. The exchange rate that EWURA used was BOT’s with a margin of 20-25 shillings against the actual rate used by importers.

3. We know that ships waits for an average of 30 days to offload fuel at the port – and each day a ship is charged $20,000 – $22,000, and these charges are reflected in the cost of fuel import, and eventually pump price. But EWURA provisioned for 3 days at a cost of $18,000 per day – something against reality.

4. On wharfage (port) cost on diesel, EWURA’s indicative price formula put it at $7 per metric ton, while Tanzania Port Authority charges at $10.4 per metric ton. In Mombasa and Beira, the same is charged at $3 per metric ton. More interestingly, fuel for neighbouring countries that passes through the port of Dar is charged at $3 per metric ton. Now, why would you charge your people $10.4 while neighbours who don’t have ports charge $3? And why would EWURA put wharfage at $7 while it is clear that importers are charged at $10?

5. Then there is an issue of conversion from metric tonnes (used for importation) to litres (used for setting indicative price). The conversion was not realistic.

6. Also, again on exchange rate: the basis that EWURA uses is the rate of first day of the following 14 days that the indicative price is applicable. This would have been okay if fuel importers were paying cash. But we know that most of importers import on credit, and also do not finish their stock in 14 days, and so when the shilling is falling it implicates on their margins.

7. Now, we know that EWURA has been issuing indicative prices since January 2009, and there hasn’t been a crisis like this one despite some of these imperfections. This is because some of these imperfections were taken care by a cushion of 7.5% that EWURA had been featuring in the pricing formula. But EWURA immediately removed it – saying that importers are making too much money.

And then there is a folly of EWURA suspending BP, a company which government has 50 percent stake in. Now, if you could not force a company you partly own – and which you have access to all its books and costs – to abide to your new price, then something must be very wrong. The result of BP suspension is that you also share the loss as a shareholder; and as a big importer TRA suffers in revenues.

A debate in necessity for price setting is one we should have. More importantly, I would think that the relationship, the understanding and communication between the regulator and regulated entities is very critical in the functioning of the industry. There is absolutely no need for public fights and show of machismo. And there is absolutely no need to sow divisions among oil importers and treat them differently and isolate others so that industry regulation can prevail.

So, as Government you can force oil companies to sell fuels at the pumps and deliver it from depots – since you control instruments of order. But you can’t force an importer to place an order from the refineries overseas. From what I hear, and I hope it is not true, some companies have reduced their fuel orders to Tanzania, and some have turned around ships that were heading this way.

The biggest impact of the crisis was not just that weeklong of inconvenience – but the deterioration of confidence in EWURA as a regulator, and more so on Tanzania as a market and reliable place to do business.

In concluding

Finally, I would like to challenge you to look at the power situation in Tanzania from a different perspective. I think most in business community have looked at it as constant bottleneck to business progress – and rightly so. But we need to broaden that outlook. With our economic growth expected to hit double digits within this decade, infrastructure investment, especially in power, is obviously the next big thing. Seven years from now, conservative estimates show that Tanzania power demands will hit around 10,000 GWh, and triple that by 2030 at 30,000 GWh. Within the next 20 years, the power sector will attract investments of well over $30 billion. Generation costs per kWh are projected to drop substantially to 10 cents from current 15.3 cents, and still by 2020, revenues to power providers are expected to hit $3 billion annually, while their expenditure around $2 billion. At current values of power to the economy, the power sector will contribute well over $11 billion to our national GDP by 2030.

This opens up an array of extraordinarily impressive business opportunities for you. And it will be a shame if you stay on the sidelines.

Time is now.

I thank you for your kind attention!

What is Holding Africa from Prosperity?

2011-09-12T08:55:00.002+03:00

The late Prof Abdulrahman Mohamed Babu had pointed out these facts in his important book, An Economic Strategy for the Second Liberation of Africa (1994).

1. Dependence on the developed world for Africa’s own development

2. Excessive use of socially necessary labor time in the production of useless goods for export, instead of useful goods for our own human development

3. Unequal trade terms, about which, position of economic weakness arise from export of primary commodities only.

4. Unproductive use of the foreign debts incurred (and the corruption that goes with it), and debt service obligations at extremely unjustified high cost

5. Poor energy policies that make us heavily dependent on external sources of energy and the depletion of our meager foreign exchange earnings in paying for the rising cost of oil imports

6. An irrational world economic order as a whole which, again cannot be changed from a position of economic weakness.

South Africa's Proposed Health Care Reform

2011-08-22T12:30:00.004+03:00

South Africa is spending 8.5% of her GDP on healthcare expenditures and continue to have inequity health system, plagued with inefficiency. Their health care system has been described as "unsustainable, destructive, very costly, and highly curative". They are expected to live seven years shorter than Tanzanians, despite the fact that Tanzania's expenditures in healthcare is much less comparable to SA's. This is not a surprise; the legacy of Apartheid is the creation of one of the most en-equal society in the world.

To that end, it seems like folks in SA Ministry of Health are parting ways with donors influenced disease control programs and are overhauling the entire system. Their plan is ambitious, with some unanswered questions--but it is a bold and much welcomed change. Details of the proposed reforms are outlined in this 59 pager policy paper released by SA-MOH. Quick reforms that stands out--

Creation of National Health Insurance (NHI) modelled from UK's NIH (what Americans call socialism ). NHI will be the sole provider and payer of health expenditure in SA. It will make sure everybody has access to a defined "comprehensive package of healthcare services'". NHI will definitely help control the escalation of cost and there will be rationing of care as well. NHI eventually will transform the way health services are provided, managed, and increase priority towards primary health care.
Ideally, NIH being the sole funder--will be able to pool and reallocate the funds in a more egalitarian fashion, and revitalize public health sector that will vastly improve access, and will regulate for the higher quality of care.
Foreign students, tourists, and visitors will be required to show health insurance prior to entry in SA. (potential impact on tourism industry?)
Re-engineered primary healthcare system focusing on community outreach with an eye on health promotion and preventive measures. They need to look at Ethiopia's Health Extension Workers, who are attributed to a revolutionized rural health in Ethiopia.
School health services. This is a simple and effective way to improve child hood health.
Over 14-year implementation period, the overhaul will cost $17 billion (Same price US spend in Afghanistan in 8 months). It will be funded by taxes--which raise concerns for a country with 24% unemployment. It might be regressive to bombard the tiny middle class with extra taxes. I wonder how rich folks feel about that.

You can check out the rest of the proposal on the link above. I think it is the right direction towards improving health systems in low-mid income countries. We have to get away from the PEPFARs and the Global Funds and tackle the problem at its core--which is the messed up system. Tanzania should pay close attention on how this thing is being implemented, we need our own reform. Besides, healthcare is one of the few industries that continue to add jobs in this economic climate. It makes sense to reform now.

Another Edition of Good Reads

2011-08-11T09:41:00.008+03:00

It has been the culture of this blog to post what we think might be good reads (books) for the readers of this space. In this edition we have one book that might challenge the dogmatists view economics of poverty (Easterly-Moyo Vs. Sachs-ProBonos). And the other book has enabled liberals and conservative to embrace "libertarian paternalism" view and argue that we are all choice architects at one point. The contents of these books are valuable for public policy makers who are bold and are looking for different ways to achieve their causes. The reviews that are posted below have been borrowed (without permission) from various credible book reviewers. Enjoy!

Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. By Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo. PublicAffairs; 336 pages; $26.99. (The Economist Review)--One of the Author (Esther Dufflo) was also featured in this blog sometime in the past.

“Poor Economics” should appease some of their critics. It draws on a variety of evidence, not limiting itself to the results of randomised trials, as if they are the only route to truth. And the authors’ interest is not confined to “what works”, but also to how and why it works. Indeed, Ms Duflo and Mr Banerjee, perhaps more than some of their disciples, are able theorists as well as thoroughgoing empiricists.

They are fascinated by the way the poor think and make decisions. Poor people are not stupid, but they can be misinformed or overwhelmed by circumstance, struggling to do what even they recognise is in their best interests. The authors recount (with grudging admiration) how nurses in rural Rajasthan outwitted the two professors’ efforts to stop them skiving off work. They also describe how borrowers in south India exploited a contractual loophole to avoid taking out health insurance, which their microlender insisted they buy for their own good.

The poor, like anyone else, can also succumb to inertia, procrastination and self-sabotage. The authors discovered it was quite normal for poor women in the Indian city of Hyderabad to take out a microloan charging 24% interest only to deposit it in a savings account that paid 4%. This seems mad, except that the obligation to repay the loan ensured the women did not squander the money. Farmers in western Kenya miss out on the benefits of fertiliser because, by the time the planting season arrives they have often spent their earnings from the previous harvest. But farmers far-sighted enough to buy the fertiliser straight after the harvest, when they do have money, do not sell it, despite facing all the same demands on their resources. In other words, farmers cannot save the money to buy fertiliser, but they can save the physical fertiliser itself.

Poverty is often linked in the public mind with dependency. But, as the authors point out, the poor bear more responsibility for their lives than the rich, who coast along, enjoying chlorinated water, drawing a regular salary, paid directly into a bank account, perhaps with contributions to their pension and health care automatically deducted. The rich can indulge their weakness for cigarettes and alcohol without fear of financial ruin. The poor, in contrast, have to watch every cup of sugary tea. Mr Banerjee and Ms Duflo recommend a variety of nudges, props and subsidies that will make it as easy for poor people to make the right decisions as it is already for the rich.

If it is a mistake to equate poverty and dependency, it is equally mistaken to believe the poor will lift themselves up by their bootstraps. The book crosses swords with the business gurus and philanthropists who project their own enthusiasm for Promethean entrepreneurship onto the poor. Yes, the poor are more likely to run their own business than the rest of us. But that is because they have no other choice. When asked, most of them aspire to a government post or a factory job. Developing countries are not full of billions of budding entrepreneurs; they are full of billions of budding salarymen. Read the rest here.

Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness By Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein. 293 pp. Yale University Press. $26

As a result, Thaler and Sunstein argue, many of the familiar arguments for why people should simply be left to make choices on their own, and especially for why government should stay strictly out of the way, have little practical force. In many important areas of choice that matter both to the individual and to the rest of us (for example, when overuse of medical care drives up our insurance premiums and our taxes), the operative question is not whether to bias people’s decisions, but in which direction.

Thaler, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, and Sunstein, a law professor formerly at Chicago but now at Harvard, apply this line of argument to a wide array of familiar areas: saving, borrowing, energy consumption,smoking, teenage pregnancy and many others. Along the way they present fascinating findings about how people actually make decisions, together with lots of personal advice: save more, diversify your investments, don’t invest much in your employer’s stock, don’t pay points on mortgages, buy insurance with the biggest deductible you can afford, don’t pay for extended warranties. But their main objective is to reshape public policy (Sunstein is an informal adviser to Barack Obama, who has advanced some “Nudge”-like policy ideas), and it’s clear that the suggestions they care most about apply to ways in which governments can do a better job of guiding the choices made by their citizens. The goal, in part, is to nudge people toward healthier, safer, more prosperous lives while also addressing pressing issues like environmental damage and the rising cost of health care.

If all this sounds paternalistic, that’s because it is. Thaler and Sunstein adopt the deliberately oxymoronic label “libertarian paternalism” to describe their general approach. It’s libertarian in that people retain the right to make their own choices: they’re free to select the savings plan with the lowest projected return if that’s what they really want. But the government — or an employer, or the person in charge of laying out the food in the cafeteria — is nonetheless nudging people in the direction that somebody thinks will make them better off.

The conceptual argument is powerful, and most of the authors’ suggestions are common sense at its best: Set up 401(k) programs so that employees have to opt out if they want, rather than making them opt in. (At present, roughly 30 percent of employees eligible for 401(k)’s don’t sign up, despite the enticement of employer matching contributions.) Do the same for organ donation. Make credit card companies offer an automatic full-payment option. Offer investment vehicles that provide automatic portfolio rebalancing. Most of these ideas work because of the human tendency, widely documented, toward what Thaler and Sunstein call “inertia.” Most of us just call it laziness.

In the end, however, “Nudge” is somewhat thin on practical ideas for public policy that follow from the authors’ core insight. Many of the suggestions Thaler and Sunstein make, in contexts like savings and mortgages and credit cards, amount to calls for greater disclosure (what did all of those credit card fees total last year?) or for presenting information in a clearer way (to make price comparisons for mortgages easier). Surely no one except the companies making the profits would oppose more disclosure and clearer information. But we don’t need behavioral economics, or libertarian paternalism, to think such proposals might be helpful.

And the authors occasionally strike a false note. Their recommendation to allow patients to sign away the right to sue doctors for malpractice, for example — presumably in return for lower medical bills — doesn’t resemble the argumentation elsewhere in the book. The threat of lawsuits, they reason, gives doctors little incentive to be more careful because malpractice insurance isn’t “experience rated”; in other words, the premium charged doesn’t depend on the doctor’s past record as it does for, say, drivers. (Oddly, they accept the seemingly conflicting view that the threat of lawsuit is expensive because it leads doctors to prescribe unnecessary tests.) Why don’t they suggest that malpractice insurance be experience rated too? Read The Rest Here.

The Legacy of Jakaya and Beyond 2015

2011-08-04T16:41:00.006+03:00

I should start by declaring that two of my family members were directly appointees of Jakaya in his first term of presidency. To that end, I have indirectly become a benefactor of his presidency, and this fact might persuade some readers to delegitimize the contents of this document. Also, I have spent not more than 90 days in Tanzania throughout his presidency; education and work assignments have kept me outside of my homeland for a long time. I might not be the best judge of his performance. But as every other African will tell you, Tanzanians love their country—and I have been keeping tabs of the state of our politics throughout my adulthood.

We have had 4 presidents so far in our infant country, and these gentlemen brought different style of leadership. But Jakaya is probably the most criticized for rather deserving or undeserving reasons. You see, we Tanzanians are luckly. Nyerere presided a nation with a clear vision to empower and create independent thinkers out of Tanzanians. He pushed education in its empowering version—not to accumulate knowledge, but to become the means of livelihoods. This foundation had enabled our transition towards democracy much easier and more meaningful. Democracy is useless, and can be an authoritative tool if the mass is misinformed. However, during Benjamin’s (who I regard as an intellectual) presidency he did treat Tanzanians as children. There was a free press that was fearful of the state and you can say that Benjamin was not comfortable enough to be ripped (or his government) in the press daily. This had resulted into fewer leaks and fewer scandals being presented to the press. It doesn’t mean that there were no scandals.

Jakaya is massively criticized because Tanzanians are being aware of how the government is functioning, and we do have an awful ineffective bureaucracy (this is not new). Contrary to Benjamin, Jakaya truly believe that Tanzanians deserve to know everything. He is comfortable enough to be ridiculed in the press because he understands that is how a democratic system should work. Nowadays, we complain about the press being too free that they write upuuzi. From Tanzania Daima, MwanaHalisi, Raia Mwema, to name few dailies and weeklies that make a living ripping this government. To me this is one of his biggest achievements, trusting the people to know everything, and make their decisions on the ballot accordingly. He has had his disappointments (umeme & corruption), and his triumphs (hardcore part of education and infrastructure) but I do commend him for allowing us to talk sh!t about him freely.

Moving forward, Tanzania is on the cusp of taking off. We have this great foundation in place, we just need a reformer and visionary at helm to steer us the right way. Unfortunately (or fortunately), this is our generation challenge. Anybody who was alive during independence shall not attempt to run for presidency in 2015. You have the wrong mentality. We are free already. We just need a leader who is blind of 1961 euphoria, who understand the global dynamics and can negotiate with global leaders without feeling inferior to them. In mean time, let us scrutinize these politicians regardless of their party affiliations—and question the authenticity of the dubious journalism, because the well-being of our republic depends on an informed citizen. At our inner core, Tanzanians are independent and moderate, it is the way we have been engineered. We cannot afford to lose this trait now, as the future has never been so bright.

Random Rant: Classless Barcelona

2011-07-30T11:56:00.005+03:00

If Barcelona wants a player who is under contract--then they should pay up. These guys want to buy a world class mid-fielder at only 24 for peanut price. Just because Cesc has loyalty with them, does not make his price any cheaper. Now, they are holding Arsenal hostage because of the unwillingness to pay up. And if the deal doesn't fall through, Arsenal can't count on Fabregas because his loyalty in in Barca. You would expect Barcelona to have more class than what they are doing now.

Looking forward to another season of Gunners football. Competition just got a whole lot tougher, but I think this is a year we can finally win something. Before all that, Barca need to show a little class and pay up the right price for Fabregas.

Waiting on South Sudan's Big Day

2011-07-06T10:19:00.004+03:00

I have been in South Sudan for the last 3 weeks (my second stint) now in different areas of the country. It has hard to be here and not being inspired by the magnitude of the events that will take place on July 9th. This is the place where the forgotten war was fought for decades and only World War II killed more people than the Sudan civil war in the modern era. The devastation of that conflict can be seen on daily activities here, you might spend 4 hours driving 50 KMs or stumble into healthcare facility that has neither skilled workers nor essential medicines. There sheer amount of poverty and suffering is unprecedented-- while the acres and acres of virgin land that is stuffed with landmines reminds one that this was once a battle-field. As it is, the entire population is divided into two halves, you are either a former soldier or a former refugee.

But South Sudanese are beaming with unspeakable joy right now. Either you are a Nuer, or a Dinka. A Madi or Acholi. Whether you are a former refugee or a former soldier--the people here seems to put all their bitter ethnic rivalry on the side and celebrate on the big day. There are parties arranged in almost every household, some are planning to slaughter a bull, some a goat, some a chicken--but it is clear that July 9th is shaped up to be the biggest day for this neonatal country. The have all the rights to celebrate, the sacrifices that they took for the right to be a free people are immeasurable. That is why July 9th will be a somber celebration, so many South Sudanese have perished during the fight for freedom. John Garang's name will be echoed throughout the next coming days. This new nation would have used his leadership skills now more than ever--It is unfortunate that he never lived to see this day, but his presence will truly be felt.

Now, Juba is bracing itself for hosting head of states and a lot of "important" global leaders. This is a town that was literally a village three years ago, and an airport that was just handled over yesterday (July 5th). There has been a massive crack-down on security this last week. We were waken up by SPLA soldiers conducting household weapons search, and stop and search check-points all over Juba. Nobody will be allowed to enter or exit Juba starting July 7th, and the airport will be closed from July 7 to 10. The boda boda are not even allowed to use the main roads and Juba will come to a complete shut down when the big day approach. The security crack-down is understandable, not everybody is happy with South Sudan independence. There have been "rebel" militia attacks in different areas of South Sudan who are rumoured to be bankrolled by the other Sudan government. And there is The Abyei showdown, and a crisis in South Khordofan . The situation here is getting tense as the big day is approaching, because nobody know what the other side will do. Interestingly, I just ran (July 5) in huge convoy of Uganda soldiers heading to Juba. It seems like South Sudan is starting to align itself with East Africa and M7 is making himself some friends.

The independence day will come and go, but South Sudan government face the huge task of building this country. It remains to be bitterly divided along tribal lines, and a lot of unanswered questions regarding the issue of oil and debt with the Khartoum government. For us who are working here, we are already aware of how difficult is it to achieve meaningful results. The government has to be assertive, and international community have to get away from short-term projects and invest in real people of this country. But many African countries have been free for about 50 years now, South Sudan has the luxury to look at how African leaders built their nations. I will urge them to copy Julius Nyerere's playbook on nation building.

In mean time, we will be partying comes on July 9th and it is a blessing to be a part of this whole thing, and we are looking forward towards helping these guys building their country. It won't be easy, but it is definitely exciting.

Politics and Power Cuts in Tanzania

2011-06-29T14:19:00.002+03:00

Erick, a journalist in Dar, asked me "what is the source of power crisis in Tanzania, and how can it be resolved?". I thought, as simple as these questions were, they are the soberest a journalist has ever asked me. And, as such, they deserved reflection and detailed response. Here I write back:

................

Dear Erick,

Thank you for your email - and your good questions. I think the discussion on energy has taken an interesting tone and, as ever, characterized by finger pointing. For me, as an MP and the Chairman of Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Minerals, the most important question is how do we get out of current crisis. But, before that, we need to look at how we got here.

A bit of history.

All tragic stories begin with “once upon a time…”

So, once upon a time, there was no power cuts. Yes, those who were connected to the Grid were relatively few, but had power most the time. Today, those connected to the Grid do not get power most of the time. Question is: what happened? The simple answer is: we did not invest in power generation, and transmission and distribution system to keep up with increasing demand. This is the crux of the matter.

Why did we not invest? I will explain a bit. The critical period in the history of electricity in Tanzania was between 1996 and 2006. In 1996, at the height of privatization fever, we decided that TANESCO should also be privatized. So, it was “specified” i.e. put under the list of companies to be privatized. This meant that no investment was undertaken – in generation, in transmission and transmission systems and in human resource in TANESCO – except for a couple of donor-funded projects that were in the pipeline already.

So, while no major investment was undertaken, the following also took place between 1996-2006:

1. Faster growth of the economy – at an annual average of 7 percent. And the drivers of this growth were big energy consumers – mining, construction and telecoms.

2. Initiation and expansion of the donor-driven rural electrification program.

3. Growth of SME sector which relied on power – garages, salons, etc, and medium industry, including packaging and so forth.

So, by 2002, 5 years after the decision was made, TANESCO was still not ready to be privatized. It was therefore decided to bring a private management company to run TANESCO and prepare it for privatization. Enter NetGroup Solutions from South Africa. The management contract was (initially) to run for two years and was funded by the Swedish government. It was further expanded to two more years until 2006. Whether or not NetGroup delivered per contract, and whether or not the engagement was a good idea, are matters of debate until today. In the provision of the contract, there was a bonus (beyond management fee) to be paid to NetGroup if they improved the financial condition of TANESCO. Of course they did so (and got the bonus) by doing two things: they succeeded in collecting massive amounts of unpaid bills – even from the Army, and other notorious defaulters including many government agencies. They even went after Zanzibar! They also heavily relied on hydro (they went even below allowed Mtera depth) for generation so as to minimize the costs. As a result, TANESCO's balance sheet improved. But the decision to rely entirely on hydro had its costs - some of which we are seeing today.

So, in 2006, the decision on the fate of TANESCO was finally made: we will not privatize it. So, in essence, these were lost 8-9 years. Then, from 2006 – now, we entered a new phase: a phase of emergency power, and politicization of power sector. And this is entirely another story. But, it is worth remembering that, during the last five years (2006 – 2011), we have only managed to put up 145MW of our own generation while the new increased demand per annum is 100-120MW. So, while we need to catch up fast and close the gap, we are still falling behind even on the new demand.

So, this is where we are. A country of 43 million people, with meager 1,117MW installed capacity, and production of 630MW as of today. This is miserable, to say the least.

But, the critical question is: how do we get out of here? And, most importantly, beyond the question of power cuts, how do we bring electricity to majority of Tanzanians who have not had it since the beginning of the earth?

What to do end power cuts TODAY?

There are two components to producing electricity: generators and fuel. While we need and can do with more generators, TODAY the crisis is of fuel: not enough gas to run Symbion plant to capacity; in some cases, TANESCO is asked by gas suppliers to lower generation in its own two gas plants because of low gas pressure; no fuel to run IPTL plant; and no water to run hydro turbines.

So, the immediate solution is to sort the fuel issue. Why: because, even if you are able to airlift a 300MW gas power plant to Dar today, you will get Zero power as there is simply no gas. It is not that there is no gas in the country. It is just that we haven’t planned well to get it (from SongoSongo and Mtwara) to where the generators are at critical moment and/or those foreigners controlling our gas have not allowed for this to happen.

So, we should sort fuel issue. To start with, we need to buy fuel for the IPTL plant. While this is painful, it is necessary. The cost of producing one unit of electricity at IPTL is 32 cents, and TANESCO sells electricity for 10 cents. So, basically we are buying power from IPTL at loss. But then again, for one unit of electricity that is not produced, the cost to the economy is US$1.1. So, the costliest power is still cheaper than not having it at all.

In addition, the government should sort out the gas issue. The situation as it stands today is scandalous. The bottom line is that we have gas in Tanzania but we do not control its production, its transportation, its distribution and its price. We might as well be importing it via tankers from Qatar. If, for instance, today we have just enough gas to produce only 100MW of power, it will not be directed to TANESCO gas plants (where we do not pay capacity charges) but to Songas plant (where we buy power and pay capacity charges). I even worry if the upcoming TANESCO (Jacobsen) gas plant to be commissioned in December 2011 will have gas to run on. If it wont, then this will be a scandal because we contracted it and we knew of its arrival 18 months ago. We will deal with gas issue in detail in our Committee report to the Parliament later next month. We will have to make some bold proposals.

In the interim, to cover for the shortage of gas, the government should compel Songas and Symbion to invest in combine-cycle turbines to produce more power from steam coming out of the current gas turbines – and wasted in the air. In other countries, if you use jet engines (as in Symbion and Songas plants), you are compelled by regulation not to “waste steam” that can produce additional power. (TANESCO's Wartsilla gas plants use piston engines that do not produce sufficient steam/force to enable a combine-cycle system). This is just an issue of government being assertive and change the regulation given the current emergency situation.

In the medium term, we seriously need to look at the tariff structure. We need to decide in this country whether electricity is a business or service. The current tariff is not commercially viable. Full stop. EWURA sets the price of tariff after receiving request from TANESCO. Of course they do a diligent job of looking at the cost and whether they are "prudently incurred". But then they call a public meeting to ask people what they think of the tariff request. Then people and politicians go there and bully everyone into a lower tariff. Of course TANESCO could do better to cut some of its costs so as to produce electricity cheaply, but we have to realize that 36 percent of tariff is a result of capacity charges, which TANESCO can do nothing about (at least for now) and therefore the more we do away with these the better, and the more TANESCO gets power from its own sources the more it is able to sell it cheaply. Even the government knows that the current tariff does not work. That is the reason it is subsidizing to the tune of 5bn shillings per year a private company in Mtwara to sell electricity at a price equal to TANESCO!

Not only does the current tariff hurt TANESCO balance sheet, it also discourages private investment in energy sector, particularly in alternative energy. For instance, for a solar generation to be commercially viable, the tariff has to be in the upwards of 20 cents (mostly because of the heavy initial investment), likewise with wind power. No one will come here – only to sell power to TANESCO at price below 10 cents.

People may say that it is impossible for poor people to afford higher tariff. I don’t believe so. Look at how much poor people are spending on phone airtime. And the tariff structure is such that TANESCO sells power at the same rate be it to a barber shop in Namanga or Barrick Gold Mine in North Mara. The tariff should be dynamic and flexible given the volatility in the fuel prices and different capacities of TANESCO customers. There are those who will be willing to pay higher tariff as long as power is steady and reliable. With industries, power, even at higher price, feature very insignificantly to the cost of production but when it is NOT available it is a very significant contribution to losses. For me, for the poor, the prohibitive cost is the electricity connection cost – at 500,000 shillings at a go, most rural people can’t afford it. If the tariff will continue to not reflect the cost of producing power, TANESCO will continue to underperform and investors will be less inclined to come (recently TANESCO announced a tender and the most competitive bidder offered to sell power to TANESCO at 1,028 shillings while TANESCO sells power for 157 shillings!) or will seek to make money off capacity charges.

Now, as we look for solutions to the power crisis, we also need to look at TANESCO (as our sole power producer and distributor at the moment) itself. What do we need to do to it? What is its cost structure? On the ground, and given the assets it owns, this company should be the pride of Tanzania. Last year, it sold power worth about 500bn shillings. Few companies in Tanzania can match that kind of revenue. And it has assets worth $1bn (more than 1.5 trillion shillings) and more than 5,000 employee. It has the potential to triple the assets and revenue in 5 years if the right decisions are made. But, what are those and why aren’t they being made. I will not dwell much on this as this thing will be longer (and will go beyond the issue of power cuts) and I will let my friend Zitto whose Committee deal with parastatal finances to chip in on this. But, suffice it to say that, we have a sleeping giant in TANESCO, and people ought to be much more thoughtful in their calls for its split and/or privatization.

But I agree that TANESCO has to do better. At the moment, it spends 70 percent of its revenue buying electricity from Songas – which only has about 15 percent of installed capacity. This is painful, and needs to change. Also, while it is required by best [utility] industry practice to spend 12 percent of revenue on Repair and Maintenance, TANESCO spent only 2.8 percent of its revenue on R and M between 2005-2008 – and result is lots of broken transformers and service lines and a huge amount of lost electricity. TANESCO needs to invest in transmission and distribution system as part of the solution to the current power crisis. Last year, mainly because of poor transmission and distribution infrastructure, TANESCO lost 21 percent of power it produced and/or bought. This lost electricity amounted to more than 1,200 GWhr – which is more than all electricity used in factories and businessplaces for the entire year, and amounted to about 75 percent of all electricity bought from Songas in the entire year. These are massive losses – which, if curbed, in themselves would have helped with the power situation.

I want to wind up as I am just on a roll – and can’t seem to finish. But last point: we need to manage better private [prospective] investors in energy sector. There is a lot of bureaucracy and red tape within government where people come in with project plans and proposals and end up going in circles in government offices and end up being captured by middlemen and influence peddlers - and eventually corruption kicks in. There are projects that should have been in the pipeline now but were delayed because of bureaucracy and our incapacity to deal with their complexity. Also, we need to be serious on how we handle energy projects. Most energy investors dedicate a team of around 20 people in a single project – lawyers, finance people, etc. Power projects are very complex. I feel that we in government aren’t looking at them as such. We assign 4 or 5 people who already have other tasks in the Ministry to look at these projects and engage these guys. There ought to be a full time project management team at the Ministry that will live and breath power projects everyday and how to get them executed faster and to the benefit of the country. And I also think that there are many clever energy financing avenues that we haven’t explored thoroughly, and have been stuck in the traditional grants, loans and treasury guarantees.

Finally, the government has plans to do 2,780MW by 2015. This is quite an ambition, and will go long way towards covering the gap and catching up with the demand. I like it when we think big and attempt big things. But to achieve it, we need to do better than business as usual.

So, these are some of my thoughts. You also asked me clarify on my comment on Minister Ngeleja. I didn’t want to dwell on people and personalities. As you can see, there are enough issues to fill many paragraphs. As a Member of Parliament, I will continue to ask these questions and advice the government to make the right decisions and policies. As MPs, we will hold the government (via Minister responsible) accountable for its promises in the Parliament, and we will demand answers (including answer to my letter), and the appointing authority will have to judge on his Ministers' performance. But to say that the Minister is a source of power crisis in Tanzania is being simplistic. And I am not one to jump into simple answers. I have realized that part of my problem as a politician is that I am probably too nuanced, and should probably have chosen academia. But I believe that we can do better as a people to embrace nuance and complexity.

As Chairman of Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Minerals, people always ask me when will these power cuts end? In my PERSONAL view, intermittent power cuts will continue until 2013. And this is being optimistic. Leaders will have to be honest that it may be impossible to completely end the current phase of power cuts before the end of the year.

Call me if you have further questions,

Best regards,

January Makamba (MP)
Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Minerals
Dodoma
June 29th, 2011

PS: The views in this email are my own, not Committee's.

Paine's Perspectives on Religion.

2011-06-27T18:15:00.002+03:00

From Thomas Paine's Age of Reason. I will put some snippets here and you can read the whole thing right here. In light of the religious squabbles that are brewing in Tanzania's internet blogs and from some of irresponsible media, we could all use some common sense!

I believe in one God, and no more; and I hope for happiness beyond this life.

I believe in the equality of man; and I believe that religious duties consist in doing justice, loving mercy, and endeavoring to make our fellow-creatures happy.

But, lest it should be supposed that I believe in many other things in addition to these, I shall, in the progress of this work, declare the things I do not believe, and my reasons for not believing them.

I do not believe in the creed professed by the Jewish church, by the Roman church, by the Greek church, by the Turkish church, by the Protestant church, nor by any church that I know of. My own mind is my own church.

All national institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian or Turkish, appear to me no other than human inventions, set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit.

I do not mean by this declaration to condemn those who believe otherwise; they have the same right to their belief as I have to mine. But it is necessary to the happiness of man, that he be mentally faithful to himself. Infidelity does not consist in believing, or in disbelieving; it consists in professing to believe what he does not believe................

Each of those churches show certain books, which they call revelation, or the word of God. The Jews say, that their word of God was given by God to Moses, face to face; the Christians say, that their word of God came by divine inspiration: and the Turks say, that their word of God (the Koran) was brought by an angel from Heaven. Each of those churches accuse the other of unbelief; and for my own part, I disbelieve them all...................................

When the Church Mythologists established their system, they collected all the writings they could find, and managed them as they pleased. It is a matter altogether of uncertainty to us whether such of the writings as now appear under the name of the Old and New Testament are in the same state in which those collectors say they found them, or whether they added, altered, abridged, or dressed them up.

Be this as it may, they decided by vote which of the books out of the collection they had made should be the WORD OF GOD, and which should not. They rejected several; they voted others to be doubtful, such as the books called the Apocrypha; and those books which had a majority of votes, were voted to be the word of God. Had they voted otherwise, all the people, since calling themselves Christians, had believed otherwise — for the belief of the one comes from the vote of the other. Who the people were that did all this, we know nothing of; they called themselves by the general name of the Church, and this is all we know of the matter.............................................

As to the theology that is now studied in its place, it is the study of human opinions and of human fancies concerning God. It is not the study of God himself in the works that he has made, but in the works or writings that man has made; and it is not among the least of the mischiefs that the Christian system has done to the world, that it has abandoned the original and beautiful system of theology, like a beautiful innocent, to distress and reproach, to make room for the hag of superstition.

The very nature and design of religion, if I may so express it, prove even to demonstration that it must be free from everything of mystery, and unencumbered with everything that is mysterious. Religion, considered as a duty, is incumbent upon every living soul alike, and, therefore, must be on a level with the understanding and comprehension of all. Man does not learn religion as he learns the secrets and mysteries of a trade. He learns the theory of religion by reflection. It arises out of the action of his own mind upon the things which he sees, or upon what he may happen to hear or to read, and the practice joins itself thereto.

When men, whether from policy or pious fraud, set up systems of religion incompatible with the word or works of God in the creation, and not only above, but repugnant to human comprehension, they were under the necessity of inventing or adopting a word that should serve as a bar to all questions, inquiries and speculation. The word mystery answered this purpose, and thus it has happened that religion, which is in itself without mystery, has been corrupted into a fog of mysteries....

On Tanzania's Growing Population

2011-06-16T14:00:00.009+03:00

On Tanzania's Growing Population

By Thuwein Y. Makamba

This is where we are at today. Each woman in Tanzania is averaging 5.4 children during her lifetime, and that would project our population to grow up to 109 million by year 2050. Only 27% of Women have access to modern contraceptive methods.

Women in our country are forbidden the choice to abort their pregnancies, so they either throw the infants away (we often read of this in our news) or seeks unsafe abortions--which happens a lot on makeshift clinics. Now, 42% of under-5 yrs old have stunted growth which have implications on their intellectual abilities. Furthermore we have 88% of secondary school graduates virtually failed their examinations.

We are a nation of young, unemployed, and uneducated people in an economy growing in unequal way with non-existent middle class. But we continue to produce offsprings that we either do not need or we can not take care of (as a parent and as a nation). Our culture used to view children quantitatively, that a family needs a man power for farming and livestock keeping. But the mechanization of labor has changed that mentality. And Children are valued qualitatively. The parents with 2 children that have at least bachelor degree is better off than one with 6 children, half of them malnourished. The parents with 6 children in 20 years, are better off than the ones with 3 children in two years. The issue is not necessarily to limit the number of children, but to have a quality pool of offsprings. Moreover, the direction of global labor market is to favor only those skilled workers. Engineers, and ICT wonks. The companies will invest only to those countries that have wide pool of these kind of workers.

It is in everybody's interest to scale up Reproductive Health and Family Planning services to majority of Tanzanians, and should be included in the package for essential health services for every single health facility in our land. Obviously this will not be easy, and other will argue that development is the best contraceptive, but the pace of development is so slow that we can not wait. Currently we have 43 million folks, and only 15% households have rationed electricity. There is famine scare if we miss 3 months of rain, and we need USAID + Irish money to feed our own children. Now, imagine what would happen if there is 100 million of us. It would be a disaster.

Population issues are never without controversies, and currently we have religious leaders who think of themselves as bigger as ever. But RH/FP is about child spacing and empowering women more than anything, because development is synonymous with equality. Including gender equity, with a known fact that women are thee large, untapped resource that we have. So, this is not about "killing babies" it is about giving our children a chance to become a competent people. And allowing Women to use the magic of child rearing skills for other facets of our society.

That is why when Roe V. Wade (legalized abortion) was passed in 1973, it had effect with the significant reduction of crime in early America's 90s. This is because folks where given the chance to have children that they could take care of. And China's one child policy has created a generation of skilled pool of worker unrivalled by any country on earth. They all want to go back to China to build their nation.

Our time is now, and policy makers can can choose to ignore RH because it is not as popular as banning "posho" but the great law of neccesity is so obvious that warned the states from allowing increasing of population beyond the food it can produce or acquire.

An Insane Economic System

2011-06-09T00:24:00.004+03:00

United States currently has a record number of homeless people, and a record number of foreclosures homes. In a way, there is bunch of folks sleeping outside staring at bunch of empty houses.

Isn't that crazy? Whatever happened to commonsense policy making? and maybe a little less greed from the elites.

Irresponsibility of Some of Tanzania's Media

2011-06-05T03:09:00.011+03:00

In Tanzania we have been enjoying free of speech unparalleled by many countries in this planet. However, there has been a trend of gross irresponsibility by our journalists and the public have been constantly fed by ridiculously articles. I ran into this piece published by RAIA MWEMA on June 1st, 2010, that demonstrated the sheer negligence of professionalism and ethics of fine journalism. Somebody, should get Jenerali Ulimwengu (whom I greatly respect) to read the articles that his affiliated newspaper is publishing.

Here is the piece and some comments that I inserted.

Kikwete na Porojo za Kujivua Gamba

Na Mwandishi Maalumu (You can not publish article with this amount of allegations without revealing the author)

NI vigumu kuamini kwamba rais wa nchi anaweza kuhusika na mchezo mchafu kama huu wa kuwabagua wananchi wake kwa misingi ya dini zao, lakini matukio ya hivi karibuni yanathibitisha hilo.( How? Show us the causality)

Baada ya uchaguzi mwaka jana na hasa tukio la Arusha la Watanzania kupigwa na polisi kwenye maandamano ya Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), na kisha harufu ya udini kuibuka, baadhi ya Waislamu wachache wenye mtazamo mkali walianza kuzunguka nchi nzima wakitoa mahubiri ya chuki. (Dates, Names, what exactly did they say? At least have a source)

Mkutano mmoja ulifanyika kwenye ukumbi wa Diamond Jubilee jijini Dar es Salaam na inadaiwa ulipata baraka za Kikwete (How can we believe u?). Baadhi ya mikutano hiyo ilijadili masuala tata, na baadhi ikaibuka hata na mapendekezo ya ajabu ukiachilia yale ya muda mrefu kama vile kudai Mahakama ya Kadhi na Tanzania kuingia kwenye Jumuiya ya Kiislamu Duniani (OIC).

Madai mengine yalihusu malalamiko kwamba Wakristo wamekuwa wakipendelewa tangu enzi za ukoloni na kwamba ingawa Waislamu ni wengi zaidi Tanzania, lakini hawana nafasi nyingi za madaraka.

Madai mengine yaliyotolewa ni kwamba Wakristo wana shule na mahospitali lakini Waislamu hawana, na kwamba serikali hutoa fedha kuzisaidia hospitali za Wakristo na walimu wa kufundisha shule za Wakristo, lakini Waislamu wanaachwa hivi hivi tu.

Baadhi walifikia hata hatua ya kumlaani Mwalimu Nyerere na kusema kwamba hastahili kuitwa Baba wa Taifa; bali anastahili kuitwa Baba wa Kanisa Katoliki. Baadhi yao, akiwemo kigogo wetu, hawamwiti Mwalimu Nyerere kwa hadhi yake iliyozoeleka ya Baba wa Taifa, na badala yake humwita Mzee Nyerere.( We need dates of the events, and names of attendees. At least a background interview. You can’t just throw allegations with NO evidence. WaTanzania sio wajinga hivyo).

Kwa ufupi, kuna imani kubwa miongoni mwa Watanzania kwamba utawala wa Rais Kikwete unalea udini (Do u have a scientific poll to back this up? ), na asipokuwa makini nyufa hii yenye msingi wa kidini inaweza kupanuka na kuutia dosari umoja wa kitaifa tulionao ambao misingi yake si udini.

Geresha ya kujivua gamba

Pamoja na kubadili safu ya uongozi mjini Dodoma, CCM pia ilitangaza kwamba wanachama wake watatu wanaotuhumiwa kwa ufisadi wajiondoe wenyewe; la sivyo wataondolewa kwa nguvu. Wanachama hao wanatajwa kuwa ni Waziri Mkuu aliyejiuzulu, Edward Lowassa, na wabunge wawili, Andrew Chenge na Rostam Aziz. Ni kweli matajiri hawa hawapendwi na Watanzania wengi isipokuwa pengine wa majimboni mwao tu.

Lakini pia watu hawa watatu wana sifa nyingine: Kwamba ndio tishio pekee na la kweli dhidi ya mpango wa Kikwete wa kusaka mgombea urais wa mwaka 2015 ambaye ni Mwislamu (This is unprecedented. You are accusing the head of state of being mdini, but you are not telling us readers how u have arrived to this conclusion?)Wanaotaka kumweka Lowassa kwenye urais mwaka 2015, si tu wanakwamishwa na tuhuma hizi zinazomwandama na hatihati hii ya kung’olewa CCM, lakini pia wanakwazwa na Kikwete mwenyewe. Inadaiwa kwamba, kwenye mbio za urais za 2015, tatizo la Kikwete kuhusu Lowassa si kwamba anakabiliwa na tuhuma za ufisadi; bali kwamba si Mwislamu. (You are supposed to quote your sources on this sentence. How can we believe u?)

Kundi hili la kina Lowassa inaaminika lina urafiki wa karibu na Makamba ambaye inadaiwa kuwa agenda yake kubwa kwa mwaka 2015 haikuwa udini; licha ya kuwa naye amesikika mara kadhaa akilumbana na maaskofu (Disagreeing with Maaskofu does not make one Mdini); bali yeye (Makamba) ana ndoto ya mwanae (January) aje kuachiwa urais mwaka 2025 na kundi hili(Now you can read people’s dreams too? How can a respectable news as Raia Mwema publish this nonsense?). Makamba hutamba kwamba mwanae anafaa kuwa kiongozi, na hakuna ubishi kwamba alihakikisha mwanae anapata ubunge, uenyekiti wa kamati ya Bunge, na kisha kuingia kwenye Sekretarieti ya CCM.

Aidha, mtoto huyo wa Makamba pia anaelezwa kuwemo kwenye kundi linalowaunga mkono watuhumiwa hawa wa ufisadi ambalo lina idadi kubwa ya wabunge na viongozi wa CCM wa ngazi za wilaya, mikoa na taifa. Hii ndiyo sababu tangu CCM ilipoanza kushambulia mafisadi hadharani, yeye amepotea jukwaani!( Have u reach to him and ask for him to comment? That is how professional journalists operates. You just made up your own reasons as if January do not exist.)

Kimsingi, kuna kutofautiana kati ya Makamba na Kikwete kuhusiana na nani awe rais mwaka 2015 na kuhusu nini wafanyiwe hawa watuhumiwa wa ufisadi. Hivyo; tangazo la kujivua gamba pamoja na kutajwa kwa watuhumiwa hao ambao Kikwete mwenyewe aliwapigia kampeni mwaka jana kwenye uchaguzi wa wabunge, ni geresha tu. Ukweli ni kwamba Kikwete alikuwa anaunda timu itakayomrithi mwaka 2015.

Kimsingi, hadi sasa Kikwete ameshawaacha ‘wabaya’ wake wote nje ya Kamati Kuu ambao ‘dhambi’ yao kuu ni kuutaka urais wa mwaka 2015. Watu hao ni pamoja na Membe na Andrew Chenge ambaye anamtaka Lowassa. Kwa ufupi, janja hii ya Mwenyekiti Kikwete ya “kujivua gamba” ililenga katika kuwaengua wale wote wanaoweza kumsumbua kwenye suala la urais wa mwaka 2015; ingawa pia ni kweli kwamba ukiuangalia juujuu utaona kuwa mpango huo wa “CCM kujivua gamba” unalenga katika kupunguza nguvu za CHADEMA kwa kuirejeshea CCM mvuto wake wa zamani.

Vyovyote vile; hakuna ushujaa wala maamuzi magumu yaliyofanyika Dodoma. Ulikuwa ni ‘usanii’ tu, na ndiyo sababu hakuna kiongozi wa CCM anayepigia kelele kung’olewa chamani mafisadi zaidi ya kijana Nape na Katibu Mkuu mpya, Wilson Mukama ambao, hata hivyo, nao wamefungwa “gavana” hivi karibuni kuhusu kulipigia debe suala hilo. Hata Chiligati aliyejitokeza mwanzoni kuhubiri nia ya kuwavua uongozi wa CCM kina Lowassa, Rostam Aziz na Andrew Chenge, sasa naye ameingia mitini!( Sources?)

Kauli ya Joseph Butiku

Labda nigusie pia kidogo kuhusu malalamiko ya Joseph Butiku aliyoyatoa katika mahojiano na gazeti la Raia Mwema, hivi karibuni, kwamba viongozi wa CCM wamemwachia Mwenyekiti Kikwete mzigo wa kupambana na mafisadi.

Mimi nadhani madai hayo ya Butiku ameyatoa bila kujua ukweli wa mambo. CCM haiko kwenye mapambano na mafisadi; bali Mwenyekiti Kikwete ndiye anapambana na maadui zake kwenye kinyang’anyiro cha kutafuta mrithi wake kwenye Uchaguzi Mkuu wa mwaka 2015; ila tu amepata bahati kwamba watu hao hao ndio wanaolalamikiwa kwa ufisadi. Ni bahati tu ya mtende iliyotoa fursa ya ‘usanii’ huu kuchezwa! (Last election was a referendum on corruption more than anything. But you seem to disagree. You argument is “luck”. You know we can reach conclusion to every issue by attributing it on luck)

Aidha, kelele za CCM kupitia kwa Nape kwamba kuna vyombo vya habari, viongozi wa Upinzani na viongozi wa dini ambao wamepangwa kuwatetea mafisadi na kuishambulia familia ya Kikwete, ni janja ya kuwatangulia mbele ili wakisema jambo, wananchi waambiwe: “Si tulisema, mnaona sasa!?”

Hata hivyo, inafahamika kuwa makundi haya matatu ndiyo yako mstari wa mbele kupinga ufisadi na udini unaosambazwa na Kikwete na watu wake, hivyo lolote litakalosemwa halitakuwa geni; bali ni muendelezo unaofahamika. Pengine CCM haijui kuwa wananchi wanajua kinachoendelea. (WaTanzania are not stupid, ofcourse they know what is going on. You writing this piece betting on fact that WaTanzania hatujui kinachoendelea. You are betting on our ignorance)

Wagombea wa Kikwete 2015

Kwa kufuatilia mambo ya kisiasa yanavyokwenda na jinsi Rais Kikwete anavyoendesha mambo yake, kuna majina mawili ya watu wanaotajwa ambao angependa wachukue urais na umakamu wa rais wa Muungano mwaka 2015. Hii inatokana pia na imani yake kwamba Katiba mpya haitabadili mfumo wa sasa. (Now you can also predict people’s beliefs. Sources mzee, at least one source to come on the record. How can we believe u)

Sababu kubwa ni mbili: Kwanza, kutekeleza ahadi yake ya siri kwamba hawezi kuacha nchi kwa Mkristo (This is very dangerous. You are being irresponsible with your words throwing allegations like this one. SOURCES??) na pili, kuhakikisha uongozi mpya unamlinda yeye na familia yake dhidi ya misukosuko ya hapa na pale ambayo kawaida kote duniani hutokea mtu akishaacha urais. Hakika, naye hatapenda kushambuliwa kama inavyotokea kwa Mkapa.

Baada ya kufanikiwa kuwaengua pembeni Lowassa na Membe (Prof. Mwandosya kanusurika?) ni nani, basi, ambaye Kikwete anamtaka kwa urais wa 2015 na atachezaje karata zake kuhakikisha jina la mtu huyo linapeta?

Ili watu hao wawili anaowataka wakubalike, inaaminika kuwa Kikwete atatumia mtindo ule ule wa funika kombe mwanaharamu apite. Atawapendekeza kwa kutumia vigezo vinavyoficha ukweli (Now umekuwa Mnajimu. You can predict the future). Kutokana na hali ya kisiasa itakavyokuwa, anaweza kusema: “Jamani ni zamu ya wanawake sasa, tusitawale akina baba tu, nchi yetu wote.”

Iwapo wazo hili litakwama, basi, Kikwete anaweza kusema hivi: “Jamani sasa wenzetu wa Zanzibar nao, miaka 20 imepita, tuwape nao nafasi jamani.” Msemo huu, hata hivyo, hauna mashiko iwapo Katiba haitakuwa na agizo hilo; kwani upande wa Upinzani unaweza kuweka wagombea wote wa Bara.

Mbinu hiyo Kikwete ameshawahi kuitumia kwenye kujaza nafasi ya Mwenyekiti wa Umoja wa Vijana ambapo alimpendekeza kijana wa Visiwani, na pia aliitumia kwenye kupata jina la mgombea wa uspika. Anaamini kuwa mbinu hiyo itasaidia kufunika hoja yake ya udini isionekane, na hivyo kufanikisha kupata rais Mwislamu.

Asha-Rose Migiro na Dk. Mwinyi

Katika miaka ya karibuni Kikwete amekuwa na mahusiano ya karibu ya kikazi na mwanamama mmoja ambaye kila baada ya miezi michache hufika Ikulu, na kisha picha nyingi hupigwa kuonesha kwamba wawili hao wanaelewana na wanashirikiana kisiasa pia.

Huyu ni mwanamama ambaye ni mmoja wa wanasiasa wachanga waliofaidika na vyeo vya uwaziri wa Kikwete mwaka 2005. Aidha, pale Tanzania ilipopewa mwanya wa kutoa jina la mwanamke wa kushika nafasi ya juu kimataifa, Kikwete hakusita kumtaja mwanamama huyu.

Nafasi hii ilikuwa baada ya Tanzania kufanya kampeni kubwa barani Afrika kuunga mkono jina la Waziri wa Mambo ya Nje wa Korea Kusini, Ban ki-Moon, kwenye kugombea nafasi ya ukatibu mkuu wa Umoja wa Mataifa.

Mwanamama huyo pia ana kisomo kizuri kinachokubalika na kinachoweza kuwaaminisha watu wanaotaka kuuliza maswali kuhusu uwezo wake kiutendaji wa kuiongoza nchi yenye matatizo ya uchumi na yenye mipasuko kibao kama Tanzania. Mwanamama huyo ni Naibu Katibu Mkuu wa Umoja wa Mataifa, Dkt. Asha-Rose Migiro ambaye anaelezwa kuanza kujiandaa kurejea nyumbani Tanzania siku si nyingi.

Kwa upande wa Zanzibar, ni waziri mmoja kijana ambaye urafiki wake na Kikwete huwashangaza viongozi wengine wa Zanzibar; mathalani jinsi wanavyosalimiana kama watoto wa mjini. Katika mtandao wa YouTube Watanzania waliweka picha ya video ya Kikwete akisalimiana ‘kishkaji’ na waziri huyu kwenye Uwanja wa Amani, Zanzibar siku ya Januari 12, mwaka huu. Picha hiyo iliibua gumzo kubwa (What is your point?? What do u want us readers to take away from this useless paragraph? President and his minister wanasilimiana kishkaji, so what?)

Hivi karibuni Waziri huyu alipokabiliwa na msukosuko wa kutakiwa na wananchi kwamba ajiuzulu ambao kimsingi ulisababishwa na utendaji dhaifu wa Jeshi la Wananchi uliochukua maisha ya watu kwenye milipuko ya maghala ya silaha, alikataa na Kikwete hakusema kitu. Huyu ni Waziri wa Ulinzi, Dkt. Hussein Mwinyi.

Hitimisho langu

Inaaminika kuwa hao wawili ndio chaguo la Kikwete katika mbio za urais za 2015, na chaguo lake hilo linachagizwa zaidi na dini zao (How did you arrive to this conclusion? Throughout this piece, you have not convince us readers to buy on your accusation that our President is a religious fanatic) badala ya vigezo vya jumla vya sifa ambazo Watanzania wote tunataka mtu anayetaka kuwania urais kuwa nazo.

Hata hivyo, napenda nieleweke kwamba sina tatizo na rais ajaye kuwa Mwislamu au Mkristo; ilimradi tu awe ni kiongozi hodari, mchapakazi, mwadilifu na mwona mbali. Angalizo langu ni kwamba rais huyo ajaye asitafutwe kwa msingi wa dini yake; bali kwa vigezo hivyo vya ubora.

Nasisitiza hivyo; maana Watanzania katika ujumla wao hawajali dini ya mtu ila uadilifu na uchapakazi tu, lakini viongozi wetu ndio wenye matatizo ya udini. Na kwa hakika, Kikwete analo tatizo hilo.

Nihitimishe kwa kusisitiza kwamba wajibu wa wana-CCM ni kukisafisha chama chao kwa uaminifu na werevu, na kisha kuachia demokrasia iamue nani awe mgombea wa CCM mwaka 2015. CCM na Kikwete wawe waangalifu na dhana hii ya “sasa ni zamu yetu kutawala” ili Tanzania isitumbukie kwenye matatizo yanayosikika kwenye nchi zingine.

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The author and the publisher are being irresponsible and do not take their role in our society seriously. The piece has absolutely no standards to be published and consumed by our society. We are a democracy, but for democracy to work, a people have to be informed--otherwise we will continue to elect useless leaders. But our people can not be informed, if we keep on consuming garbage articles like this one.

Everybody can write, but to publish is a privilege that should be taken seriously.

The Fallacy of Donors' Driven Health Agenda

2011-06-01T08:16:00.004+03:00

In Tanzania, like many other low income countries, funds for healthcare activities are largely derived from donors. It can be PEPFAR, USAID, or The Gates. We can not tax our way through providing comprehensive health insurance for everybody in the model of UK's NHS for obvious reasons. And we can not generate funds from Social Insurance Schemes due to largely high levels of unemployment. So, we rely on donors, who in turn get to set the agenda and the priorities on how to spend the money.

This is what we get-- Acute Respiratory Infections only get 3% of funding despite contributing to 25% of disease burden. Shigellosis (some stomach infection) kills 1 million a year, mostly children but receives relatively no fundings. On the other hand HIV despite of its deservingly fame, contribute only 5% of disease burden but it collects 32% of total funds. There is absolutely no infrastructures for cardiovascular and other non communicable diseases, but collectively there is no emphasis to earmark funds onto these categories (because they do not cross borders). This is what happen when a country loose grip of its own agenda.

What is rather surprising is law makers in Kenya have gotten creative and proposes airline levy (like UNTAID is doing) to increase funds for HIV. This is mind boggling, because they could use that money to build up their non-communicable disease infrastructure since they get so much HIV money from other sources.

We can not improve the health outcomes of our people, if we can not even address the problems that requires our undivided attention. Spending our time and efforts in HIV, TB, and Malaria just because thats what the donors want is a ticking time bomb.

The Positive.

2011-05-26T09:13:00.001+03:00

Cornel West on deception of Barack Obama

2011-05-19T03:39:00.003+03:00

A very interesting observation of Cornel West on Barack's presidency, which I found it as fair and valid--for those of us outside the veil of presidency. He (West) might have went too far when he said that Barack is afraid of an independent black man. But in most part his criticism is on point. You can't justify electing Larry Summers over Joe Stiglitz unless you want to re-assure very powerful people that you have their backs.

Anyways, here are some quotes--

"“I think my dear brother Barack Obama has a certain fear of free black men,” West says. “It’s understandable. As a young brother who grows up in a white context, brilliant African father, he’s always had to fear being a white man with black skin. All he has known culturally is white. He is just as human as I am, but that is his cultural formation. When he meets an independent black brother, it is frightening. And that’s true for a white brother. When you get a white brother who meets a free, independent black man, they got to be mature to really embrace fully what the brother is saying to them. It’s a tension, given the history. It can be overcome. Obama, coming out of Kansas influence, white, loving grandparents, coming out of Hawaii and Indonesia, when he meets these independent black folk who have a history of slavery, Jim Crow, Jane Crow and so on, he is very apprehensive. He has a certain rootlessness, a deracination. It is understandable.

“He feels most comfortable with upper middle-class white and Jewish men who consider themselves very smart, very savvy and very effective in getting what they want,” he says. “He’s got two homes. He has got his family and whatever challenges go on there, and this other home. Larry Summers blows his mind because he’s so smart. He’s got Establishment connections. He’s embracing me. It is this smartness, this truncated brilliance, that titillates and stimulates brother Barack and makes him feel at home. That is very sad for me."

On Michelle Obama

I can tell her I’m sorry it offended you, but I’m going to speak the truth. She is a Harvard Law graduate, a Princeton graduate, and she deals with child obesity and military families. Why doesn’t she visit a prison? Why not spend some time in the hood? That is where she is, but she can’t do it.

On Barack's economy team

He bitterly describes Obama as “a black mascot of Wall Street oligarchs and a black puppet of corporate plutocrats. And now he has become head of the American killing machine and is proud of it.”........The first announcement of Summers and Geithner I went ballistic. I said, ‘Oh, my God, I have really been misled at a very deep level.’ And the same is true for Dennis Ross and the other neo-imperial elites. I said, ‘I have been thoroughly misled, all this populist language is just a facade. I was under the impression that he might bring in the voices of brother Joseph Stiglitz and brother Paul Krugman"

On Barack's defense, I think governing a 450 million democracy is not easy especially in a country whose political system was designed to frustrate radical changes. Edmund Burke and early thinkers thought this was a way to avoid radicals from creating fresh difficulties in their attempt to re-engineer the society. I think he could do more for progressives and moralists out there (himself is one of them) but he is governing an institution rigged with ideologue that requires compromises to get things done. The Kennedys (Bobby & Jack) were progressive and didn't last very long. Bobby didn't even made it to the presidency, maybe Barack want to enjoy his social security.

and you can read the whole interview here

A Radical Experiment in Empathy

2011-05-08T20:34:00.006+03:00

In a wake of Osama's death. A renowned sociologist Sam Richards' timely talk on empathy is challenging you to get outside your skin and attempt to understand the other side.

Many of us still regard Mau Mau movements in fighting for Kenya's independence as heroics, but British viewed them as savaged terrorists. And they set operations to crush them, which was highly supported by majority of British people. When Nelson Mandela and ANC waged terrorist attacks against white South Africa, it was acceptable to a lot of black Africans but himself (Mandela) was viewed as a terrorists by scores of western nations. Malcolm X, infamously said that Black Americans need to speak the same language (of violence) as White Americans during the civil rights movements. And he is viewed as a role model and a hero to a lot of people in our societies.

But our standards of "acceptable violence" took different turn when judging how middle-easterners react to what they perceive as injustice against them. I'm not trying to defend terrorism, but terrorism itself is in relative to who? because Mau Mau weren't terrorist in our eyes--then maybe Hamas or Al-Qaeda aren't terrorists in Palestines' lens. Whenever a society perceive to be treated unfairly, her people will raise up, that is human nature. Social justice and social protection are the cheapest way to avoid violence. Politicians and policy makers ought get their empathy on, if the world will ever try to reduce the amount of violence that is so prevalent.

Malaysia New Economic Model

2011-05-06T10:27:00.003+03:00

In an attempt to circumvent away from the "middle-income trap". Malaysia has put together an impressive blue print. Bold and indeed creative on paper. I hope serious politicians in Tanzania can print and read these reports. For the sake of being inspired.

Here is Part One and Part two. They are all PDFs and are downloadable links.

Deadly Collabo?

2011-05-04T21:52:00.003+03:00

These two need to make an album together. 20 percent and Afande Sele, it would be just right on point. "Hata tembo akikonda hawezi kuwa kama ndama"..Enjoy kazi yao hapo chini.

Thoughts on Health Inequality

2011-04-27T08:52:00.003+03:00

Thoughts on Health Inequality

By Thuwein Y. Makamba

Improving health inequality doesn’t necessarily increase health equity; Sen argued that distribution of wealth in a fashion that will make overall society unhealthy is not the right way to pursue health equity. In many low income countries, the pie is too small to be distributed to everybody, and it is suggested to let economies grow first before implementation of egalitarian social policies. However, in societies like United States where the pie is already big, it is imperative to implement social policies that will improve social determinants of health and provide everybody capabilities to achieve good health. However, policy makers must understand that providing capability for citizens to achieve health doesn’t mean they will achieve good health. This is explained by the idea of “subculture of poverty” brought by anthropologist Oscar Lewis who argued that poor people have sense of dependence, of not belonging, and are marginalized in their own country. These people (poor) are convinced that existing institutions do not serve their interest or needs. In response to this, it is imperative that when improving social determinants of these populations’ health, the behavioral change component should also implemented in parallel with improving education status.

Providing healthcare for all and implementing policies that will improve social conditions for the poor is a moral decision, and decisions in morality are non-uniform amongst politicians and policy makers. United States political ideology (premises of Washington Consensus) is highly influenced by early political thinkers like John Locke who argued that “every man has a property in his own person. This nobody has any right to but himself. The labor of his body, and the work of his hands, we may say are properly his.” This thinking has shaped a society in a way that it is not accepted to distribute one’s income, because the labor is the unquestioned property of the laborer. This explain why more egalitarian social policies are not acceptable in United States, despite the evidence of immense sufferings to those disadvantageous social groups. And the fact that the idea of ‘unquestioned property of the laborer” is only valid when there was the same level of equality to begin with. The critics of equal social policies are negating the notion of accident of birth, which it was not in poor people choosing to be born in conditions with poor determinants of health.

Those who disputes ideas of equality often say that “it is better that some should be unhappy than that none should be happy”. Although this thinking is flawed because equality can also means that everyone should be happy. Also, it also known that wherever health inequalities are greatest the overall health status of the population is lower. Therefore it is in everybody interest to adopt the policies that would improve health equity of the society. The only inequality that should be allowed is that if it would benefit those who are least well-off, argued by John Rawls in his Difference Principle. But this Rawls’ accepted inequality would only be tolerated if it will improve equity rather than bringing everybody down.

The marker for moral excellence in our society should be based on how we can avoid premature deaths, and needless illness. We have signed a social contract with our governing institutions to pursue equal justice for all and this include giving everybody the chance to pursuit of healthiness regardless of their social status or income.

Global Inequality in Perspectives

2011-04-25T09:06:00.003+03:00

Great work of Branko Milanovic

Making high impact drugs cheap from day one!

2011-04-23T10:22:00.005+03:00

With TRIPs already wrecking havoc on availability of life savings drugs to the poor. Health Impact Fund, came up with fresh ideas of providing incentives for drug companies to open up their "new" drugs at a much lower price. Here is how it works--

Pharmaceutical innovator voluntarily agree to register his new drug with HIF. In doing so, the drug will be available at low cost to match cost of production and distribution. This will enable poor folks (and rich folks) to be able to purchase new high impact drugs at a low price. In return, HIF will offer annual reward to the innovator depending on the impact of the drug. After ten years, the innovator is obliged to allow generic production of his drug for free.

This is by far the freshest idea to solve the access to medicine problem, and in a spirit of public-private partnership, this should be embraced by most of the players in Global Health. However, impact measurement will be relying on Quality Adjusted Life Years, which will be notorious difficult to measure in remotest of areas. Data mapping disease burden geographically will also be helpful in measuring the impact, but not sufficient enough. Impact measurement is an area of concern for me because it is the only predictor of whether to innovate or not--and low income countries have the weakest health information systems which means low quality of data.

HIF will have huge impact on neglected diseases, because currently innovators have absolutely no incentives to research for new drugs, and this is the area where big impact will be felt. However in non-communicable diseases, it is hard to see high profitable cholesterol drugs registering with HIF. Poor folks will have to survive few more heart attacks before the generic versions are available. You can read rigorous skeptics of HIF here

And the video of Prof Pogge of Yale, who is the co-champion of this idea.

Technology Diet?

2011-04-18T20:28:00.004+03:00

A study by the Kaiser Family Foundation released in January 2010 concluded that 8- to 18-year-olds devote an average of seven hours and 38 minutes to entertainment media per day. But because they dedicate so much of that time using more than one medium at once - say, scanning Facebook as they listen to music and chat with friends - they actually pack in about 10 hours and 45 minutes of content in that period..............A team at UCSF published a study last week that found further evidence that multitasking impedes short-term memory, especially among older adults. Researchers there previously found that distractions of the sort that smart phones and social networks present can hinder long-term memory and mental performance.

Are we becoming a society of abstract thinkers, who can be easily distracted by enormous information made available in this digital age? The beauty of abundance of information, is that we can attempt to find solutions to our problem easily, if we focus at the particular problem. The curse of it all is, we do not get to focus at any problem at all. When too much information become distraction, it is fair to ask if we have the ability to filter out the information we think it is not important. Or we will just spend our online time reading into useless tweets and feeding into narcissistic facebook/blog posts?

Money quote

More and more, society is looking like a chat room

Read the rest of the article here.

Dalai Lama on Humanity

2011-04-11T08:06:00.002+03:00

Money quote from Dalai Lama on what surprised him about humanity. (h/t Reciprocity Failure)

"Man. Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived."

The Future of Advertising or Publicity Stunt?

2011-04-07T03:17:00.003+03:00

Sanchez used to work at his local Ecko outlet store and says his wardrobe is mainly Ecko. And at only $100 for the tat, Sanchez expects that the stunt will pay off. When asked if he was satisfied with the 20 percent reduction, Sanchez remarked, "It should be [at least] 30 percent which is employee discount." He added that he's already showed his body art to the Ecko employees, who told him he's welcome to shop anytime.

It would be interesting to see if the alcohol industry will offer this kind of promotion, or tech giants like Apple.

The Case for Strong Social Policies & Human Development

2011-03-26T05:34:00.005+03:00

Botswana has per capita income of $13,204 in 2008, while Costa Rica has a lower per capita income of $10,870. But Costa Rica has a life expectancy of 79 years and under five mortality rates of 11 yrs/1000 live births. By contrast Botswana, with its rapid economic development ranks low in human development indicators and has life expectancy of 55 years and child mortality of 31/1000 live births. How do u explain this disparity? Its not entirely on HIV and AIDS. Besides, HIV is an epidemic.

Economic development alone in terms of GDP growth or Per Capita income doesn't cut it, if there is no strong social policies to curtail inequality.

Why The Markets Hate Libya?

2011-03-22T09:44:00.001+03:00

Off Mike Allen's PlayBook

“Libya is a big deal and not helpful to the world economy. At a minimum: Oil supplies disrupted, oil price increase is a drag on growth, war expenditures rip another unbudgeted hole in the budget … Worst case: All of the above, plus: Qaddafi survives and Libya is split between east and west (Benghazi and Tripoli). Egypt exerts dominance over the Benghazi half. Qadaffi teams up with Al Qaeda and unleashes a wave of terror in Western Europe in revenge for U.K., Italy and French participation in the coalition, Russia rearms Qadaffi, China gets the oil and Europe is driven closer to Russia (energy dependence now with no nuclear coming online and no Libyan oil). Over time, this starts to look like Iraq from 1991-2003, with a no-fly zone and ineffective oil-for-food sanctions and Saddam (now Qadaffi) still in power and a permanent thorn in our side. … Markets hate uncertainty and this situation has nothing but.”

Swagga la Peter Msechu

2011-03-18T20:24:00.003+03:00

It should be a treat catching this guy performing live with his own band. I hope that is his plan. In this clip, he is performing Shida, which by itself is a classic track.

Digital Africa

2011-03-15T00:51:00.002+03:00

From INTELLIGENT LIFE Magazine, Spring 2011

There were about 17m Facebook users in Africa at the start of this year, and there are expected to be 28m by the end of it. That means Africa is by far the least Facebooked continent, but the growth patterns indicate that the numbers will surge ahead as mobiles and data become more affordable. Facebook is already making its way in poorer countries. The number of Facebook users in Tanzania quadrupled in 2010, to 200,000. It is expected to quadruple again this year, giving Tanzania more Facebook users than graduates.

Interesting observation

There are signs that a new generation is outmanouevring the old. January Makamba, a youthful Tanzanian politician touted as a presidential hopeful, used Facebook to rally supporters and money when he won a parliamentary seat for the Bumbuli constituency in the hills between Mount Kilimanjaro and the Indian Ocean last year. Makamba brought an aide on the campaign trail whose role was to take pictures and write stories for Makamba’s Facebook page. The target audience was not impoverished Bumbuli, but Makamba’s peers back in the city: a sophisticated web presence was meant to attract ideas and funds and set Makamba apart from the bruisers, apparatchiks and army officers who also have designs on the presidency

Is Libya Obama's Rwanda?

2011-03-03T12:31:00.003+03:00

There are striking similarities, back then The US Marines were fresh off their embarrassment in Mogadishu and didn't want any part of foreign humanitarian intervention. Resulted (part of the blame) into a genocide in Rwanda.

Flash forward today, you have two failed military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan and nobody want to touch Libya--despite the evidence that Gaddafi is committing war crimes against his people. How are we going to look back at this moment?

Irrelevance of African Union

2011-02-23T03:39:00.004+03:00

In Standard three we were taught that Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya are all African countries and members of then OAU, now AU. The recent events in Egypt and even the bloodshed in Libya have brought up the idea that are these countries really Africa's? As of now, Arab League held a meeting condemning the events in Libya, UN security council had a meeting and released a statement about Gaddafi. Surprisingly African Union, has been busy sorting out Laurent Gbagbo's mess and haven't put a single statement about Libya. African Union is rendered irrelevant on these recent issues which enhance the perceived notion of inferior Africans.

Now, it is known that many African leaders fear Gaddafi. The guy funded Charles Taylor and Iddi Amin, maybe many leaders do not want to cross Gaddafi just in case he made out of this mess. But this is the moment for African Union to become what it ought to be. Make a forceful statement against the violence in Libya and condemn Gaddafi's response to his own people. If AU has an ambition to become a respectable body in the global governance, they need to seize this moment. Otherwise, it should cease to exist.

Globalization, Trade, HIV, & Profit

2011-02-18T12:38:00.008+03:00

The stark example of how the globe is intertwined. Kenyans are protesting the trade agreement between India and EU. EU is proposing a trade with India (the largest producer of generic ARVs). Currently EU is gunning for "data exclusivity" clause that will delay production of cheaper generic drugs for at least 5 years. Kenyan's movement is aided by MSF which obtain 80% of its ARVs cheaply from India. And as of today, 80% of ARVs purchased by "donors" comes from India.

The World Trade Organisation’s trade agreement — which India must comply with — does not require data exclusivity. The EU wants India to add this optional restriction on drug-safety data for the benefit of European-based drug companies, not for the benefit of India. That’s why, until now, India’s commerce and health ministries have strongly opposed it. So has Brazil, India’s closest economic cousin.
Second, gutting India’s own laws. Astonishingly, even if India’s own patent office determines that a product does not warrant patent protection, data exclusivity could be used to subvert India’s Patent Act. The act’s framers strived very hard to limit patents to truly inventive products. That’s why India’s law does not permit patents on a new drug that offers only modest revisions to an existing drug compound (for example, by altering dosage), which does nothing to enhance therapeutic benefits.
Earlier this month, for example, India rejected Abbott Laboratories’ request for a patent on its HIV drug Kaletra, because it did not consider it inventive. Kaletra is a combination of two earlier HIV medications, lopinavir and ritonavir. Now, as a result, Indian firms can proceed with production of cheaper, generic versions of this critical drug, which attacks HIV-virus mutations that have become resistant to older drugs.
Tragically, if the EU-India agreement is signed, legal decisions like this one will be meaningless. Data exclusivity will impede production of generic drugs for TB, cancer, and other chronic diseases. Unlike patents, however, data exclusivity cannot be challenged under Indian law.

The Europeans are conniving for the clause which even their own influenced WTO refuses to accept and the ramifications of this agreement will have dramatic impact on how we treat HIV patients in low-income countries. It goes to show that even if LICs have perfect policies and leadership, there are somethings that are out of their control. Until we establish some sort of economical sovereignty, we will always be forced to agree into dubious trade agreements--which are quintessential to morer poverty.

Read the rest here

The Children of Men Triumph over The Mighty Barca

2011-02-17T03:43:00.003+03:00

Who said you can't beat Barcelona on their own brand of football?

<a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/video?vid=c22b11af-aac0-43c0-99f8-c3028a31bcd3" target="_new" title="">CL Highlights: Arsenal/Barcelona</a>

Selling Foreign Aid

2011-02-16T14:55:00.004+03:00

In the midst of austerity measures and looming deep cuts from the "donors" budgets. An interesting read to sell foreign aid to the skeptic masses.

So perhaps the public does not need to be persuaded that development matters, but needs instead to be convinced that aid makes a difference. Even so, it seems reasonable to say that we should use every argument at our disposal for aid: we should appeal to the public’s self-interest as well as their moral values, and we should at the same time set out the evidence that aid works.

The most popular critique of aid in recent years, Dead Aid by Dambisa Moyo, does not challenge aid on the grounds that the plight of the poor is not our concern. It is a poorly argued book in many other respects, but it would be wrong to accuse Dr Moyo of callous indifference. Indeed, all the famous aid sceptics, from P. T. Bauer to Bill Easterly, explicitly accept development as the objective: they simply question whether foreign aid is a good way to achieve it.

The aid that was used to prop up Mobutu in Zaire during the Cold War may have served a foreign policy interest, but it did little or nothing to reduce poverty and raise living standards in that country. Money used today to buy food aid may be a convenient subsidy for American and European farmers but if we bought the food locally we could feed twice as many people with the same money and at the same time support the growth of sustainable agriculture in developing countries. The more we use aid to support our strategic and commercial interests, the less effective that aid is likely to be in the fight against global poverty, in which we have an important long-term interest.

The above paragraph demonstrate what is really wrong with the current aid structure. Not only the WFP food, the same system is applied in PEPFAR/Global Fund drugs. Effectively (with TRIPs) destroying South's capacity in pharmaceutical industries. Yes, South needs aid, but it shouldn't be used as North's corporates welfare.

The rest of the article.

RT @Gladwell

2011-02-12T22:54:00.003+03:00

sMALL CHANGE

Why the revolution will not be tweeted.

by Malcolm GladwellOCTOBER 4, 2010

Social media can’t provide what social change has always required.

At four-thirty in the afternoon on Monday, February 1, 1960, four college students sat down at the lunch counter at the Woolworth’s in downtown Greensboro, North Carolina. They were freshmen at North Carolina A. & T., a black college a mile or so away.

“I’d like a cup of coffee, please,” one of the four, Ezell Blair, said to the waitress.

“We don’t serve Negroes here,” she replied.

The Woolworth’s lunch counter was a long L-shaped bar that could seat sixty-six people, with a standup snack bar at one end. The seats were for whites. The snack bar was for blacks. Another employee, a black woman who worked at the steam table, approached the students and tried to warn them away. “You’re acting stupid, ignorant!” she said. They didn’t move. Around five-thirty, the front doors to the store were locked. The four still didn’t move. Finally, they left by a side door. Outside, a small crowd had gathered, including a photographer from the Greensboro Record. “I’ll be back tomorrow with A. & T. College,” one of the students said.

By next morning, the protest had grown to twenty-seven men and four women, most from the same dormitory as the original four. The men were dressed in suits and ties. The students had brought their schoolwork, and studied as they sat at the counter. On Wednesday, students from Greensboro’s “Negro” secondary school, Dudley High, joined in, and the number of protesters swelled to eighty. By Thursday, the protesters numbered three hundred, including three white women, from the Greensboro campus of the University of North Carolina. By Saturday, the sit-in had reached six hundred. People spilled out onto the street. White teen-agers waved Confederate flags. Someone threw a firecracker. At noon, the A. & T. football team arrived. “Here comes the wrecking crew,” one of the white students shouted.

By the following Monday, sit-ins had spread to Winston-Salem, twenty-five miles away, and Durham, fifty miles away. The day after that, students at Fayetteville State Teachers College and at Johnson C. Smith College, in Charlotte, joined in, followed on Wednesday by students at St. Augustine’s College and Shaw Uni

A Crisis: NECTA 2010 Form IV Results

2011-02-02T08:35:00.005+03:00

This simple graph tells the shocking story of the countrywide O Level (Form IV) examination results for 2010 which were recently announced. Half of the students obtained division zero; this number rising to almost 89% as the total in "non-pass" grade. The passing grades (Divisions I to III) are merely 11.41%. Certainly "Is Our Children Learning" is no longer the question here (see 2 previous postings). Question is, what are we doing about it?

MATOKEO YA KIDATO CHA NNE 2010

DARAJA	WANAFUNZI	%
I	5,363	1.51%
II	9,942	2.81%
III	25,083	7.08%
IV	136,633	38.59%
0	177,021	50.00%
	354,042	100.00%

Jumla ya waliofaulu (Daraja la I mpaka III)		11.41%
Jumla ya wenye Daraja la IV na wasio na Daraja: Yaani "ZERO"		88.59%
(source is Wanazuoni forum)

Education: "Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow"

2011-02-02T08:17:00.002+03:00

The latest Form IV results puts another perceptive on the educational challenges we face and possible remedies. Here are the efforts of Tanzania Education Trust in collaboration with Accenture Development Partnerships...

Generosity and Patient Capital

2011-01-11T23:17:00.002+03:00

Post on: http://blog.acumenfund.org/2011/01/11/generosity-and-patient-capital/

By Sasha Ditchter

Activity and interest in the “impact investing” space is accelerating. There are now more than 192 “impact investing funds” and JPMorgan thinks this could be a $1 trillion market. Not surprising that Lucy Bernholz, writing in the Stanford Social Innovation Review, ranked “impact investing” and “social entrepreneurs” as two of the top 10 Philanthropy Buzzwords of the Decade.

Meanwhile, Matt Bishop of The Economist just argued this week that 2011 will be the year of reckoning for social enterprise.

There’s no doubt – with everything that is happening in the microfinance space and with the growth of our sector – that we all should face and will face increased scrutiny. Now is our chance to define what we are building and why, to define the terms of success and failure, and to build the tools to hold ourselves accountable.

In this talk at the NextGen:Charity conference, I describe how I see the threads of philanthropy, investing, generosity and patient capital weaving together to fight poverty.

"Is our Children learning?"

2010-10-15T06:47:00.010+03:00

Shanta Devarajan interviews Rakesh Rajani from Sense Film Production on Vimeo.

I assume many of you by now have already read or learned about the Twaweza's report "Are our Children Learning?" released last month. Above is an excellent interview on this report given by Rakesh Rajani of "Twaweza" and conducted by the Chief Economist for Africa, World Bank, Shanta Devarajan.

Rakesh shares the sobering picture of quality of education in Tanzania despite the country dramatically increasing primary school enrollment and recently receiving an MDG award for the achievement.

Some key findings showing that all this "quantitative success is hollow":

About 20 percent of the children who had completed seven years of primary school could not read their own language, Kiswahili, at the Grade 2 level;
Half of them could not read English, which is the medium of instruction in secondary education;
And about 30 percent could not do a simple (Grade 2) multiplication problem.

So what do we do now? His suggestions:

1) We need to make sure money (budgetary allocation) reaches the schools.

2) A social compact with Teachers to improve their conditions in exchange for better results.

3) Reforming the education system to add more incentives that reward what matters eg cash on delivery.

Other key findings in the report can be read here.

What are your suggestions?

Human Fulfillment...Consequentialism

2010-10-07T01:14:00.002+03:00

Essays From South Sudan

2010-09-30T17:21:00.002+03:00

I happened to be in the midst of six months stint in South Sudan. I finally had a chance to write and reflect on this place.

The Rights of a Man

(By Thuwein Makamba)

A man wakes up in the morning, facing the daunting task of providing for his family; making sure there is food on the table for his children, and that the roof of his Tukul is not leaking when they go to sleep at night. The main means of income for this gentleman is subsidence farming, cultivating round potatoes (famously called Irish Potatoes here). His wife is making her contribution by buying and selling small items at the local market, with the little one on her back at all times. She has four children despite having been pregnant six times. Their three year old son, who has paralytic polio, is playing at home. His brother is four years old with a bloated stomach indicating some sort of malnutrition. Their sister, who is twelve, is the head of the family whenever her parents venture out to find a living. She cooks, feeds, and baths her siblings without ever complaining. In the evening, she is helping out with alcohol sales of the family business. She is also enrolled in nearby primary school in Standard four, but she is incapable of reading and performing basic math. There are not enough motivated teachers in her school, and her class takes place under the mango tree that makes it difficult to learn especially now that it’s the rainy season.

When malaria strikes, which seems to happen on regular basis, (I came down with malaria twice within my first two months here), the man takes his sick one to a nearby health center. This is usually a woman’s job, but on this occasion his wife is attending a funeral of the death of her newly born nephew who succumbed to neonatal tetanus. The health center, which is one structure with four different rooms, was constructed by an American NGO and has a big sign at the entrance that reads; “A Gift from The American People”. Although its only 10 am, the health center is closed. The man decides to wait, while his 3 year old is getting more lethargic. Around 11 am the health worker in charge shows up. He makes a point to let everybody know that he hasn’t received his salary since election time (March, 2010) and he also has a family to feed. The center was designed to have twelve health staff members, but he is the only one who showed up. As clinician in charge, he completed a nine month training that anointed him to be a competent healthcare provider in this village. He attended to the three year old with disregard to the highly promoted WHO’s IMCI guidelines, despite attending refresher training on IMCI provided by an NGO operating in this area. There is neither a microscope nor a microscopist here. A rapid diagnosis test is used; ParaCheck is the brand of choice—despite ample evidence of false positives from the Paracheck brand. the clinician doesn’t know any better. The three year old is diagnosed with malaria, and the man is compelled to ride his bicycle for three hours to buy his son malaria medications. The free medications at the health center arrived with only three months left on the expiration date. This is the place where they dump their drugs. A man then spends his hard earned 4 dollars and 42 cents to buy a dose of Switzerland imported Coartem. Hoping this time around his son’s malaria will never come back again. Hope is the only thing that he has going for him, he cannot afford to have that taken away.

This man, not knowingly— has been at the center stage of a global debate that has included Bono, Bill & Belinda Gates, Ban Ki Moon, and every other expert in between. He is the star of the blockbuster film called MDGs. This man has been a consistent force behind the recession proof of a billion dollar NGO industry. A lot of ground has been covered in the effort to reduce the burden of extreme poverty experienced by this man. But it is far from being enough and sustainable. The debate has been shifted from the needs of a man, towards how much money can be raised for this man. And the blame has been placed on those rich countries that do not commit enough money to help this man. The truest blame should be placed on those rich countries that implement policies that obstruct a man from improving his income. The very nature of life caters to those who are most adaptive to the conditions on the planet and these persons will prosper. That is why we have antibiotic resistant bacteria. It is a very normal process for poor people to suffer at unequal capacity, and die in unequal amounts compared to their “fittest” counterparts. For folks in the business of reducing the burden of extreme poverty experienced by the man, they need to understand that poverty elimination is rather an unnatural process. We are going against the norm, against the order of nature. However, through innovations, the right incentives, sacrifices, and a little bit of luck—mankind has been able to accomplish many unnatural feats. Reducing the burden of poverty is not impossible, but we have been employing dismal efforts that are unable to match the task at hand.

With the current global efforts, infant mortality rate is to be reduced and free education provided—but the man is not involved in how he can make those remarkable accomplishments sustainable. And that is through revenue generations to help paying the costs of these services. i.e an increased income. The current efforts are heavily directed towards lobbying rich countries to contribute more monetary aid. Instead, this energy should be placed on pressuring them to stop flooding poor countries with subsidized products that effectively destroy the local markets and drive a man further into poverty. OXFAM have reported that eliminating US cotton subsidies would improve the welfare of over one million West African households. But trade issues were barely mentioned in the MDG summit that just ended.

The debate in development assistance for health has been between programmatic vs. health system strengthening approach, but it doesn’t go far enough to speculate on the contribution of a man towards making either of those approaches sustainable. A man is to be given what is perceived to be his needs, and nothing more. The NGOs operating on the ground are obsessed with reporting indicators to the donors to showcase their remarkable performance; they almost forget that numbers are meaningless without the everlasting sustainable impact to this man. The recent obsession with achieving the MDGs (especially 4 and 5) has pushed noble professionals to come up with incredible innovations to reduce maternal and infant mortality rates. From Conditional Cash Transfers, Voucher Schemes, and other demand induced interventions, these ideas are being experimented throughout the poverty arena. The notion that in response to the stimulated demand, the quality of health systems in the tropics will improve and sustain themselves at this high level is a fallacy. But the goal here is wrongly assigned towards achieving MDGs instead of equipping a man with the tools to create wealth for his family.

A man doesn’t need free healthcare, all a man wants is to work and provide for his family—the only thing he wishes to change is his income, which has to match the work he puts into. Unregulated globalization has placed a large barrier towards making this a reality. Today, more income is going to rich countries from the poor ones, and anti-poverty advocates continue to bring a knife into a gun fight. It is time to realize the momentous task ahead and coordinate the efforts accordingly.

I’m meeting up with a man at a local bar; we are watching a football game between Arsenal vs. Liverpool. We have paid 10 cents each to watch this game run on a Chinese imported generator, powered by imported Diesel from who knows where, on an expensive South African DSTV. Sipping his Coca Cola quietly, a devout Christian and an avid Liverpool fan; a man is truly a global citizen but the leaders of the globalized world have tied him with invisible chains that rendered it impossible for him and his family to get out of extreme poverty.

"Why the revolution will not be tweeted" - Malcolm Gladwell

2010-09-28T12:45:00.002+03:00

In a forthcoming publication for the Rockefeller Foundation, my colleague Edgar Masatu and I reflect on ICTs and Citizen Agency.

The soaring penetration of mobile communication devices around the world is having profound effects on access to information, business models in financial services, forms of social mobilization, and sources of innovation. We explore the ability of social media to serve as an “aggregation of voices from the bottom up,” and cite examples such as social media being credited with amplifying the mobilizing power of Thailand’s Red Shirt protestors and facilitating citizen journalists to “report” on the Chinese and Iranian authorities’ responses to recent street protests. Lawrence Haddad from the Institute of Development Studies in the United Kingdom predicted that driven by ICTs, “people power in development will move into a new age.”

But, should we believe the hype that ICTs may re-shape the relationship between the state and the citizen? Is the technology enhancing citizens’ participation in civic life or their ability to hold governments more accountable? Can social media change politics?

Malcolm Gladwell has a different perspective and does not think that social media is (or can be) an instrument of big change.The article is called ‘Small Change: Why the revolution will not be tweeted” Here is one of his sentences in his inimitable style:
“...Facebook activism succeeds not by motivating people to make a real sacrifice but by motivating them to do the things that people do when they are not motivated enough to make a real sacrifice. We are a long way from the lunch counters of Greensboro.”

Intrigued? Read more at http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/10/04/101004fa_fact_gladwell?currentPage=all#ixzz10odV5zGi

Sneak Preview: Road to Victory Documentary

2010-09-10T00:59:00.001+03:00

Development economics in historical context

2010-09-07T00:55:00.001+03:00

UnderstandingSociety: Development economics in historical context

Hollis Chenery and T. N. Srinivasan published the Handbook of Development Economics in 1988. It was state-of-the-art in the late 1980s. It is interesting to look back at the Handbook twenty-two years later to see how it stands up today.

First, the contributors. The volume is a dream-team of development thinkers from the 1970s and 1980s: Amartya Sen, Arthur Lewis, Pranab Bardhan, Joseph Stiglitz, Peter Timmer, Nancy Birdsall, Paul Streeten, and Dwight Perkins, to name only a small subset of the authors. (There are 33 essays in volumes I and II.) Several currently important figures are not represented -- Arturo Escobar, Jeffrey Sachs, and Dani Rodrik, for example. Escobar's Encountering Development: The Making and Unmaking of the Third World appeared in 1994; Jeffrey Sachs's The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time didn't appear until 2005; and Dani Rodrik's One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth appeared in 2008. So it is certainly true that the field has moved forward with the emergence of new voices and perspectives since 1988. But it is also true that the volume represents a very deep body of knowledge about some of the dynamics and policy choices pertaining to economic development.

More important is the question of the range of perspectives on development represented in the volume. Development thinking has tended to swing from progressive to neo-liberal over the decades. Progressives have paid more attention to distribution, poverty, and social provisioning; whereas neo-liberals have focused on markets and "getting the prices right," with little appetite for redistribution, government subsidies, or serious efforts at poverty reduction. Gunnar Myrdal, Amartya Sen, and Arturo Escobar represent three generations of progressive development theorists; perhaps Peter Timmer, Malcolm Gillis, and Jeffrey Williamson fall closer to the neo-liberal end of the spectrum. I would judge that the Handbook does a pretty good job of finding the middle of the spectrum. Chenery's own emphasis on the importance of redistribution in development (Redistribution with Growth) places him closer to the progressive end, along with Pranab Bardhan, Irma Adelman, and Lance Taylor (each of whom has a contribution in the volume). The book pays attention to "alternative approaches" to economic development as well as poverty-related issues like health and nutrition. The book does a good job of combining a clear vision of the goals of economic development -- improvement of human welfare -- with technical economic analysis of growth, labor markets, and trade. And many of the authors explicitly recognize the point that development economics benefits from theoretical pluralism; the approach is not narrowly neo-classical.

Their Future?

2010-08-07T21:07:00.002+03:00

Hotuba ya Matokeo Kura ya Maoni

2010-08-03T12:41:00.001+03:00

HOTUBA YA JANUARY MAKAMBA BAADA YA KUTANGAZWA KWA MATOKEO YA KURA ZA MAONI YA UBUNGE JIMBO LA BUMBULI KWA TIKETI YA CCM ILIYOTOLEWA KATIKA UKUMBI WA OFISI YA CCM WILAYA YA LUSHOTO, JUMATATU TAREHE 2 AGOSTI, 2010 .

(Imeandikwa baada ya kuzungumzwa).

CCM Oyee! (Oyeee!)
CCM Oyee! (Oyeee!)
Bumbuli mpoo? (Tupoo!)

Nashukuru sana.

Sasa, nianze kwa kumshukuru Mwenyezi Mungu kwa rehema zake. Tupo tumefika hapa leo tulipo kwasababu ameamua iwe hivyo. Ametujalia uhai, uzima na afya kati yetu. Kwahiyo ni muhimu kumshukuru.

Pili, napenda kuwashukuru wazazi wangu kwa malezi mazuri, kwa mchango wao mkubwa kwenye maisha yangu mpaka nimefikia hapa nilipofikia leo. Pia familia yangu – mke wangu na wanangu wawili – bahati mbaya hawapo [hapa] – wamesafiri. Lakini nawashukuru kwa kunitunza, kwa kukubali kukabiliana na hizi presha za siasa, na kuniunga mkono na kuwa na mimi wakati wote.

Lakini vile vile namshukuru bosi wangu, Mheshimiwa Rais Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete. Namshukuru kwa kunikubalia nimtoroke kidogo kazi na kuja kufanya huu mradi, na namshukuru kwa ushauri na malezi ya kisiasa aliyokuwa akinipa wakati wote.

Lakini sana sana, nawashukuru wana-CCM wa Bumbuli kwa kuniamini - kwa kuniamini kwa kiasi kikubwa namna hii kwa kunipa kura nyingi sana. Waswahili wanasema, “Imani huzaa imani”. Imani waliyonipa kwa kura wanizonipa ni kubwa sana. Tutasherehekea leo, lakini kesho tutakumbuka kwamba kura hizo ni…maana yake ni kwamba wanategemea mengi kutoka kwangu. Na mimi naahidi kwamba sitawaangusha. Nitaibeba bendera ya Chama chetu cha Mapinduzi, na kuipeperusha na kuinadi Ilani yetu kwa uwezo wangu wote, kwa maarifa yangu yote na vipaji vyangu vyote nilivyojaliwa na Mwenyezi Mungu. Na naamini kabisa kwamba Chama chetu kitapata mshindi mkubwa sana kwenye jimbo la Bumbuli.

Lakini pia ningependa kuwashukuru wenzangu - wagombea wenzangu tulioshiriki nao, kwa kuonyesha ustaarabu mkubwa. Tumevumiliana, tumeheshimiana kwenye mchakato mzima. Ndugu yangu Kaniki mmemuona mwenyewe ni kijana mzuri, amekomaa vizuri.

Mzee Shelukindo – naomba niseme machache kuhusu Mzee Shelukindo, bahati mbaya hayupo hapa. Lakini kuvunjika kwa koleo sio mwisho wa uhunzi. Leo wana-CCM wameamua… jana wameamua, kwamba mwingine apeperushe bendera ya Chama chao kwenye uchaguzi mkuu. Lakini heshma ya Mzee Shelukindo katika nchi yetu bado ipo pale pale (makofi). Kwa kushindwa kura hizi za maoni, haina maana kwamba heshima yake na rekodi yake ya utumishi imepotea kabisa. Hapana. Ni maamuzi ya wanachama. Binafsi nitaendelea kumuheshimu kama Mzee, lakini [pia] kama kiongozi wa muda mrefu kwenye Serikali. Ni hazina kubwa ya uzoefu kwenye jimbo letu, na bado ni mwanachama wa CCM. Na binafsi nitaenda kumuomba rasmi…hatujakutana tangu tumalize mchakato huu, lakini nitamtembelea nyumbani kwake kumuomba kwamba tusaidiane kikazi (makofi).

Lakini naomba niwashukuru wapiganaji wangu walionisaidia kunadi jina langu. Walionisaidia kuwashawishi wana-CCM wa Bumbuli kwamba mimi nafaa. Nawashukuru kwa kazi nzuri. Ushindi huu uliopatikana ni matunda ya kazi yenu. Lakini vile vile naomba niwaambie kwamba uchaguzi umekwisha jana. Mpambano umekwisha. Sasa hivi sote tunarudi kwenye hema la Chama chetu cha Mapinduzi. Sina uadui na Mzee Shelukindo. Sina uadui na Bwana Kaniki. Sina uadui na Mzee Mshihiri (makofi). Sina uadui na mtu yoyote aliyeshiriki kwenye mchakato huu.

Kwahiyo wapiganaji wangu, nawaomba sana sana sana tuache tambo. Tuache kutambiana. Uchaguzi umekwisha jana. Kazi ya kunipigania imeisha, tunaanza kazi ya kukipigania Chama chetu. Ndio kazi iliyo mbele yetu, na naomba tuifanye kwa umoja, tukishirikiana na wale ambao hawakuniunga mkono kwenye mchakato huu. Kwa nguvu ile ile ambayo mlinipigania mimi, naomba sasa nguvu hiyo muielekeze katika kukipigania Chama chetu kwenye uchaguzi mkuu wa mwezi Oktoba mwaka huu.

Naomba vile vile nitoe shukrani na pongezi zangu kwa uongozi wa Chama Wilaya, Katibu wa Wilaya na timu yake. Wilaya yetu ina majimbo matatu na kata 44. Zoezi hili ni zoezi kubwa, hasa kusimamia chaguzi za madiwani katika kata zote hizi. Ni kazi inayohitaji uwezo mkubwa, inahitaji rasilimani za uendeshaji na uwezo mkubwa wa kiutawala. Natambua kwamba zimejitokeza kasoro za hapa na pale, lakini naamini kwamba kasoro hizo zinatokana na upya wa mfumo wetu huu mzuri wa kurudisha demokrasia kwa wanachama kuchagua ni nani wawasimamishe kupeperusha bendera ya Chama kwenye uchaguzi wa wabunge na madiwani. Naamini kwamba matatizo yaliyojitokeza yatashughulikwa, na wakati ujao tutakuwa na utaratibu mzuri zaidi. Lakini vile vile naamini zaidi kwamba kasoro zilizojitokeza hazikumnyima mtu haki, na kwamba matokeo haya ya Bumbuli ni kielelezo halisi cha matakwa ya wanachama wa CCM wa Jimbo la Bumbuli.

Na mwisho, napenda kuwashukuru wote waliojitokeza hapa kunisikiliza, na nawatakia jioni njema. Nashukuru sana. (makofi)

January Makamba,
Agosti 2, 2010.

Compay Segundo

2010-07-15T03:20:00.003+03:00

Compay Segundo is a legendary Cuban musician, who hit the word stage with his Chan Chan composition made famous by the film Buena Vista Social Club. With his distinct baritone and ubiquitous cigar and big hat, Compay, who was performing until the age of 96 when he died, became an icon. In these two numbers we hear Cuban music as it should be: sweet but still lively without the steroids they put in once it crosses to Miami.

Rules vs. Norms

2010-07-08T02:03:00.003+03:00

After the interruption of the Bumbuli announcement, we now return to our "regularly scheduled program".

Bill Easterly (you can see that I have been following him closely lately), perfectly elucidated a couple of ideas running through my head as I watched Ghana crash out of the World Cup tournament. The piece lay bare some of the conundrums of organising a functioning society. I rehash and summarise some of his arguments from one of his postings in his Aid Watch blog.

"Uruguayan player Luis Suarez illegally blocked a sure Ghana goal with his hands, a goal in the last seconds that would have won Ghana the game. He was ejected according to the rules and Ghana awarded a penalty kick, which they missed, and then Uruguay subsequently won.

Did Suarez cheat? One side would say Suarez realized his team would surely lose if he let the ball go past his hands and lawfully and rationally chose to take the penalty to give his team a chance; the other side says intentionally breaking the rule to prevent a loss was unforgivably unsportsmanlike.

One possible fix is to perfect the rules. If it pays to break the rules, they must be bad rules. The rule could be changed to give an automatic goal in this situation. However, it’s not that easy – it’s impossible to have perfect rules. (The “automatic goal” rule would have worked here, but general application would inevitably lead to new disputes about whether the ball would really have gone in.)

The other solution to imperfect rules is to supplement them with norms. With strong norms in business, a businessman who exploits a loophole to cheat another businessman will often find himself ostracized and will lose a lot of future business, so he doesn’t cheat. Norms can handle complex situations more flexibly than explicit rules, so they are an essential complement to rules.

Unfortunately for Ghana and for a lot of cheating victims in business, norms have to reflect a wide and deep consensus of what is right and a willingness to punish the cheater. If everyone agreed now that Suarez had cheated and will ever after see him as the equivalent of a thieving child-beater, then maybe he would not have used his hands in the first place. Unfortunately, as often happens in developing countries, neither the rules nor the norms were strong enough to prevent cheating and we are the worse for it."

Time Has Arrived!

2010-07-05T18:00:00.002+03:00

TAARIFA KWA VYOMBO VYA HABARI

Nimewaiteni kwa mambo mawili. Kwanza, kuzindua kitabu nilichokiandika. Pili, kuzungumzia uvumi na minong’no kwamba natarajia kugombea nafasi ya Ubunge wa Jimbo la Bumbuli.

Nianze na jambo la pili. Baada ya kutafakari kwa kina, na kuzungumza na wana-Bumbuli wenzangu, nimeamua niombe fursa ya kuwa sauti yao, kuwawakilisha na kuwasemea Bungeni, kuwatumikia na kushirikiana nao kusukuma mbele gurudumu la maendeleo ya Jimboni kwetu.

Nimesukumwa na mambo gani?

1. Kwa muda mrefu, nimekuwa na hamu kubwa sana ya kushiriki mijadala ya msingi inayohusu mustakabali wa nchi yetu, nimekuwa na hamu ya kutoa mawazo yangu binafsi na kuyaweka hadharani, kuyaboresha kupitia mijadala na utafiti, na kuyatumia kubadilisha hali za maisha ya watu wa kwetu. Nimeonelea kwamba nafasi ya Ubunge itanipa fursa hii.

2. Naamini kwamba, baada ya kufanya kazi kwa karibu na Rais Kikwete, naweza kuchukua mfano wake kuitumia siasa vizuri zaidi kuitumikia nchi yangu kwa namna pana zaidi. Naamini naweza kushirikiana na vijana wenzangu, wa CCM na wasio wa CCM, kuifanya siasa iwavutie vijana wengi zaidi na ionekane kama ni sehemu ya utumishi wa umma.

3. Asilimia 72 ya Watanzania wana umri wa chini ya miaka 29. Mwaka huu, vijana waliozaliwa mwaka 1992 watapiga kura. Letu ni taifa la vijana. Inabidi ifike mahali vijana sasa wajitokeze kwenye nafasi za uongozi ili sura ya uongozi wa nchi ifanane na hali halisi ya nchi. Tutakapojitokeza wachache na tukafanikiwa, hata vijana wadogo zetu nao watakuwa na hamu ya kufuatilia siasa na tutakuwa hatujawapoteza katika kujihusisha masuala ya nchi na wengine wengi nao watajitokeza kwasababu wataona inawezekana. Hata hivyo ujana peke yake sio sifa ya uongozi.

4. Naamini uzoefu wangu kama Msaidizi wa Rais, kwa kuzunguka na Rais nchi nzima mara mbili, wakati anaomba kura na baada ya kuchaguliwa, ambapo nimelazimika kusoma ripoti za maendeleo za Wilaya karibu zote, ambapo, kama Msaidizi wa Rais, nimehudhuria vikao vya Baraza la Mawaziri na Halmashauri Kuu ya Taifa ya CCM, pamoja na mikutano mingine mingi ya kimataifa na ndani ya nchi, utanisaidia sana kuwa Mbunge mzuri. Naingia kwenye siasa nikiwa nimejifunza mengi kuhusu Serikali na jinsi inavyofanya kazi, nikiwa nimejifunza jinsi baadhi ya maeneo nchini yalivyopiga hatua za maendeleo na mbinu gani wametumia na wale ambao bado hawajapiga hatua ni mambo gani hawajafanya. Nitatumia elimu hii na uzoefu huu kushirikiana na watu wa kwetu Bumbuli kusukuma maendeleo mbele.

Sasa, kutamani Ubunge ni jambo moja, lakini kudhamiria kuwa Mbunge mzuri ni jambo jingine. Nimedhamiria kuwa mtumishi mzuri wa wananchi. Na nimeamua kuufanya mchakato huu wa kuwania Ubunge uwe tofauti kidogo.

Nimefanya utafiti wa kina kuhusu jimbo la Bumbuli. Nimezunguka na kuzungumza na watu wa makundi mbalimbali, vijana , wazee, kina-mama, viongizi, watendaji na wafanyakazi wa Halmashauri ya Wilaya, walimu, viongozi wa vijiji na vitongoji. Nilitaka kujua matumaini yao, kero zao, karaha zao, na mambo yapi wanayatarajia kwa viongozi wao. Nilifanya semina ya siku mbili wa wana-Bumbuli karibu ishirini wanaowakilisha makundi mbalimbali, na tukazungumza kwa kina sana kuhusu masuala ya Bumbuli. Nilipata fursa ya kutazama kwa kina takwimu na taarifa mbalimbali zinazohusu maendeleo ya Jimbo. Nikafanya utafiti wa kina kuhusu dhana nzima ya maendeleo ya maeneo ya milimani. Matokeo ya yote haya ni hiki kitabu. Nimekiita Bumbuli: Jana, Leo na Kesho.

Nilidhani kwamba, kama mtu unaamua kugombea uongozi wa eneo fulani, na kama kweli una dhamira ya dhati ya kuleta mabadiliko kwenye eneo hilo, lazima ujiridhishe kama kweli unayajua mambo ya hapo mahali. Sio kuyajua tu juu juu kwa kuambiwa au kusikia. Uyajue kwa kina, kwa takwimu, na vielelezo na kwa kina. Huwezi kuzungumzia mabadiliko kama huna tarifa zote za kina kuhusu Jimbo lako. Hiki ndicho nilichofanya.

Kitabu nimekimegawanya katika sehemu tatu: Sehemu ya kwanza nimeiita Jana, ambapo tunaangalia historia ya Wasambaa na Usambara kwa ujumla. Historia na utamaduni vina nafasi kubwa kwenye mchakato wa maendeleo. Lazima tuyazingatie haya. Sehemu ya Pili, nimeiita Leo. Yaani Bumbuli ya leo ikoje? Changamoto ni zipi na fursa ni zipi. Na kwa kuzingatia hayo tunaanzaje. Sehemu ya tatu, nimeiita Kesho, ambapo sasa naelezea Bumbuli mpya inaweza kufananaje. Kitabu hiki kitakuwa na matoleo mawili: moja kwa lugha ya Kiswahili na jingine kwa lugha ya Kiingereza. Toleo la Kiswahili litatoka baada ya mwezi mmoja. Nimeamua kuandika kwa lugha ya Kiingereza pia kwasababu nadhani moja ya majukumu ya Mbunge ni kupanua wigo wa washirika wa maendeleo wa jimbo lako. Ningependa watu wengi muhimu na mashuhuri niliokutana nao wakati nasafiri na Rais nje ya nchi nao wapate kukisoma, na kutazama ni kwa namna gani wanaweza kusaidia.

Kwakuwa sasa sio wakati wa kampeni, sio vyema kutumia fursa hii kutoa ahadi ambazo zinaweza kutafsiriwa kama sehemu ya kampeni. Na kitabu hiki hakiongelei chochote kuhusu Ubunge wala Mbunge wala dhamira yangu ya kugombea. Kinatoa fursa kwa mtu yoyote - mwekezaji, mtalii, mtafiti na wengineo – kuifahamu vizuri Bumbuli.

Lakini kwa kuwa mimi nina dhamira ya kugombea Ubunge, nimetumia fursa ya kukiandika ili kujifunza, lakini pia nitakitumia kama mwongozo wangu.

Kwenye kitabu tunaona kwamba asilimia 90 ya wakati wa Bumbuli wanategemea kilimo. Hata hivyo, wakati Tanzania nzima wastani wa wakati kwa eneo ni watu 49 kwa kilomita moja ya mraba, Jimbo la Bumbuli wastani ni watu 309 kwa kilomita moja ya mraba, na wastani wa watu wanne wanalima katika hekta moja ya ardhi. Maana ya takwimu hizi ni kwamba watu wana vishamba vidogo sana, na uzalishaji ni mdogo na tija ni ndogo. Kwahiyo, ni muhimu kubadilisha hali hii. Nitashirikiana na wananchi kuhakikisha tunaongeza tija kwenye kilimo lakini vilevile tunajikita kwenye kuzalisha mazao yenye thamani kubwa zaidi, na kutafuta soko la maana la mazao ya wakulima.

Katika Wilaya ya Lushoto yenye majimbo matatu, zao la chai linalimwa kwenye Jimbo la Bumbuli pekee. Lakini ukiwatazama wakazi wa Bumbuli huwezi kujua kwamba wanalima zao lenye soko la dunia. Ukitazama kwenye kitabu nimejaribu kulinganisha kati ya mkulima wa chai Rungwe na yule wa Mponde, kule kwetu. Inasikitisha. Wastani wa bei ya majani mabichi ya chai kule Bumbuli ni shilingi 130 kwa kilo, wakati Rungwe ni karibu mara tano ya hiyo. Chai ni ile ile na mnada wa chai ni huo huo kule Mombasa. Wakulima wa chai Bumbuli wanatumia eneo kubwa zaidi kwa asilimia 40 kuliko wale wa Rungwe lakini tunazalisha kidogo zaidi – kwa tofauti ya kati ya kilo 200 hadi 330 za majani yaliyosindikwa kwa hekta. Utafiti wa mwaka 2008 unaonyesha kwamba asilimia karibu 20 ya mashamba ya chai yametelekezwa kwasababu wakulima hawaoni tena faida ya kulima chai. Nimeazimia kushirikiana na wananchi kupata ufumbuzi wa matatizo ya wakulima wa chai.

Tunaona kwamba huduma bado ni tatizo. Wakati wa mvua barabara nyingi hazipitiki na shughuli zinasimama. Watu wanashindwa kwenye kupekeka maiti kwa mazishi au kwenye kuhudhuria harusi au maulidi kwasababu barabara muhimu, kwa mfano ya Soni-Bumbuli, hazipitiki. Mbaya zaidi ni kwamba kule kwetu mvua ni karibu kila siku. Katika jimbo zima la Bumbuli hakuna hata tawi moja la Benki. Inawezekanaje mahali watu wanalima zao kubwa kama chai, wana biashara kubwa za mboga na matunda lakini hawana hata tawi moja la Benki. Matokeo yake ni kwamba hakuna mikopo, na hakuna huduma ya kuweka fedha. Hali hii lazima ibadilike. Lushoto nzima lipo tawi moja tu la Benki. Lakini ukiangalia mahesabu ya lile tawi, pesa zinazowekwa ni maradufu ya pesa zinazokopeshwa. Maana yake ni kwamba ile Benki iko pale kukomba pesa za eneo lile, eneo la watu ambao ni masikini, bila kutoa huduma za mikopo. Hili na lenyewe nitalitazama.

Kwenye elimu, bado ziko changamoto nyingi. Watoto wengi hawamalizi shule ya msingi. Mwaka huu, 2010, wanafunzi 1,286 hawakuingia darasa la saba kutokea darasa la sita, na kati hao, tofauti na sehemu nyingine nchini, wengi wao, karibu asilimia 71, ni wavulana. Lazima tumalize tatizo hili.

Serikali imejitajidi kujenga shule nyingi za Sekondari. Lakini bado mahitaji yapo. Hadi sasa, wanafunzi waliopo darasa la saba ni takriban 5,548. Kama wote wataingia kidato cha kwanza, yatatakiwa madarasa mapya karibu 160 na walimu wengi zaidi, jambo ambalo haliwezekani kwa muda uliopo. Lakini tukienda na mwenendo wa hali halisi, labda asilimia 8-10 ya wanafunzi hawa, yaani wanafunzi kati ya 450 hadi 550, ndio wataingia kidato cha kwanza, na nusu ya hawa ndio watamaliza sekondari. Je, hawa wengine wanaenda wapi? Nitakaa na wananchi wa Bumbuli na kuzungumza kwa kina kuhusu yote haya. Tunapaswa kuongeza shule za Sekondari na hata zile zilizopo zinapaswa kuimarishwa ili kuwa na hadhi na uwezo wa kutoa elimu bora. Katika Jimbo la Bumbuli hatuna shule hata moja ya kidato cha tano na sita. Hili tutalirekebisha.

Huduma ya afya na yenyewe bado haijawafikia wananchi wale kwa kiwango cha kuridhisha ingawa jitihada zimefanyika. Kwa kweli yapo mengi ambayo siwezi kuyamaliza kuyazungumzia yote. Lakini nimejiandaa vizuri. Nimefanya utafiti wa kina kuyajua matatizo ya Bumbuli, nimezungumza sana na watu wa Bumbuli, wazee kwa vijana, kina mama kwa watoto, wanyabiashara, viongozi wa dini, na viongozi wa vijiji na vitongoji, na wamenieleza mambo gani wanayatarajia, na mimi nimejiandaa kushirikiana nao kuyafanikisha.

Nawashukuru kwa kunisikiliza

January Makamba
5 Julai 2010

Bill Easterly on Portfolios of the Poor

2010-06-28T01:57:00.000+03:00

Wise or Wacky?

2010-06-09T22:53:00.002+03:00

In the 1990s, Paul Romer revolutionized economics. In the aughts, he became rich as a software entrepreneur. Now he’s trying to help the poorest countries grow rich—by convincing them to establish foreign-run “charter cities” within their borders. Romer’s idea is unconventional, even neo-colonial—the best analogy is Britain’s historic lease of Hong Kong. And against all odds, he just might make it happen.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/07/the-politically-incorrect-guide-to-ending-poverty/8134

Social Business

2010-06-07T12:22:00.001+03:00

Items allowed through Israel Blockade of Gaza Strip

2010-06-02T22:45:00.003+03:00

The blockade goes further than containing Hamas, but innocent civilians are the ones who are paying the massive price.

Through the The Economist

Mwalimu on Trade

2010-05-30T02:28:00.004+03:00

Malemanomics

2010-05-28T10:53:00.001+03:00

Our (rather grim) Statistical Map

2010-05-25T05:19:00.005+03:00

Presented by Sarah Markes & Kathleen Bomani

TEDxDar 2010: A Huge Success

2010-05-24T07:48:00.006+03:00

The first Tanzanian independently organized TED event (dubbed TEDxDar) took place in Dar es Salaam over the past weekend, with a live online simulcast. The conference centered around 3 main themes for discussion: "What would Nyerere Do?", "Hadithi Zetu" (Our Stories) and "The In-Between Place"

Various bloggers attended the event and gave their take on what took place. Mikocheni Report and Shurufu did a comprehensive live-blogging of the event, while Majibu and Swahili Street provided an overview.

Maya Wegerif, one of the speakers, posted the explosive poem she delivered at the event, titled "Who tells our stories?" The entire list of speakers can be found on the event website or event program (pdf).

Congratulations to the TEDxDar team for a successful event and we look forward to see videos of all presentations at the event.

End of Ghetto

2010-05-23T18:06:00.004+03:00

When Barack Obama was elected US President, many blacks, rightly or wrongly, saw the ushering of a new era - in which Ghetto and its life will be banished. Recently, I was listening to my old recordings of 2Pac Shakur's, and this one struck me. I thought: can Pac's ghetto be banished in these Obama years? Follow the song and its lyrics. Great and surreal production.

Major! Hell motherfuckin yeah
This one goes out to my nigga Mike Coolin, hell yeah
Mama raised a hellrazor... born thuggin
Heartless and mean, muggin at sixteen
On the scene watchin fiends buggin
Kickin up dust with the older G's
Soakin up the game that was told to me
I ain't never touched a gat that I couldn't shoot, I learned
not to trust the bitch from the prostitutes, was taught lessons
A young nigga askin questions while other suckers was guessin
I was ganked for sexin'
Elementary wasn't meant for me, can't regret it
I'm headed for the penitentiary, I'm cuttin class
and I'm buckin blastin, straight mashin'
Mobbin through the overpass laughin'
While these other motherfuckers try to figure out, no doubt
They jealous of a nigga's clout, tell me Lord
Can ya feel me? I keep my finger in the trigger
Cause some nigga tried to kill me
and mama raised a hellraizor, everyday gettin paid
Police on my pager, straight stressin
A fugitive my occupation is under question
Wanted for investigation, and even though
I'm marked for death, I'ma spark til I lose my breath
Motherfuckers, every time I see the paper
I see my picture, when a nigga's gettin richer
They come to get ya, it's like a motherfuckin trap
And they wonder why it's hard bein' black
Dear Lord can ya feel me, gettin major, unhh

Chorus: Stretch
Mama raised a hellrazor, stress gettin major
Lord be my savior, unnh
(Repeat 4X)

Mama raised a hellrazor

[2Pac] Dear Lord can ya feel me
Stress gettin major, unnh
Mama raised a hellrazor, stress gettin major
Tell me Lord can ya feel me, show a sign
Damn near running outta time, everybody's dyin
Mama raised a hellrazor, can't figure
Why you let the police beat down niggaz
I'm startin to think all the rich in the world is safe
While the poor babies restin in the early graves
God come save the youth
Ain't nothin else to do but have faith in you
Dear Lord I live the life of a Thug, hope you understand
Forgive me for my mistakes, I gotta play my hand
And my hand's on the sixteen-shot, semi-automatic
crooked cop killin Glock, tell me Lord
Can ya feel me? Show a way
I'm prayin but my enemies won't go away
And everywhere I turn I see niggaz burn
Every nigga that I know's on death row
My younger homie's seventeen and he paid a price
Little young motherfucker doin triple life
Though I tell him in his letters, it's gettin better
If my nigga knew the truth he'd hit the roof
Just heard ya baby's mama was smoked out, fuck the drama
Wanna break my Loc out, smokin blunts
Gettin drunk off that Tanqueray gin
Bout to break my nigga out the fuckin pen
Mama raised a hellrazor, uhh, yeah
C'mon, uhh, mama raised a hellrazor
Uhh, dear Lord can ya feel me, stress gettin major
(Lord be my savior, unnh)

Chorus: Stretch
Mama raised a hellrazor, stress gettin major
Lord be my savior, unhh
(repeat 2X)

Mama raised a hellrazor, stress gettin major

Dear Lord can ya hear me, it's just me
A young nigga tryin to make it on these rough streets
I'm on my knees beggin please come and SAVE ME
THE WHOLE WORLD done made a nigga crazy!
I got my .357 can't control it
Screamin die motherfucker and he's loaded
Everybody run for cover, I cause shit
Thug Life motherfucker, duck quick
Now am I wrong if I am don't worry me
Cause do or die gettin high til the bury me
Dear Lord if ya hear me, tell me why
Little girl like LaTasha, had to die
She never got to see the bullet, just heard the shot
Her little body couldn't take it, it shook and dropped
And when I saw it on the news I see busta girl killin 'Tasha
Now I'm screamin fuck the world, in the end
it's my friends, that flip-flop
Lip-locked on my dick when my shit drop
Thug Life motherfucker I lick shots
Every nigga on my block dropped two cops
Dear Lord can ya hear me, when I die
Let a nigga be strapped, fucked up, and high
with my hands on the trugger, Thug nigga
Stressin like a motherfuckin drug dealer
And even in the darkest nights, I'm a Thug for Life
I got the heart to fight now
Mama raised a hellraiser why cry
That's just life in the ghetto, Do or Die!

Naants' Indod'Emnyama

2010-05-20T19:27:00.013+03:00

In the struggle against apartheid, Nelson Mandela defines the courage and bravery - willing to die for a just cause; and healing and reconciliation - willing to forgive those who took away his freedom and dignity for 27 years. But, there were other heroes who never saw 1994. The one that moves me the most is Vuyisile Mini. Born in 1920, he was an activist, a singer and a songwriter. In early 1960s, he composed Naants' Indod'Emnyama a Xhosa phrase for a threat: "Here Comes Black People". The song became an anthem for a struggle. In its popular rendition, the chorus Verwoerd Pasopa or Beware Verwoerd was added (Henrik Verwoerd was the architect of apartheid policy). So, basically the song was an irritating, boisterous, repetitive chorus saying: "Beware Verwoerd, Here Comes Black People". The song irritated the white establishment so much because it was so popular and so powerful that they found reasons to jail Vuyisile Mini. Mini, in his bass voice, used to sing it in meetings and rallies to arouse the passion of black people who would march stomping their feet. Later, the police found charges in his militant activities and the courts gave him death sentence.

In October 1964, he made the following statement from the death row:

"I am presently awaiting execution at Pretoria Central Gaol having been sentenced to death at the beginning of the year. On October 2, 1964, Captain Geldenhuys and two other policemen came to see me. They asked me if I had been informed that my appeal had been dismissed. I told them I was not interested to know from them what my advocate said. They then said there was still a chance for me to be saved, as they knew I was the big boss of the movement in the Eastern Cape. I must just tell them where the detonators and revolvers were, and they would help me. I refused. They then asked me about Wilton Mkwayi [subsequently sentenced to life imprisonment]. They said I saw Mkwayi in January 1963. I said `Yes.' They asked me if I was prepared to give evidence against Mkwayi whom they had now arrested. I said `No, I was not.' They said there was a good chance for them to save me from the gallows if I was prepared to assist them. I refused to assist. When they asked would I make the Amandla Ngawethu [‘Power is ours'] salute when I walked the last few paces to the gallows, I said, `Yes'. After a few more jokes of that nature, they left.

On 6 November 1964, Mini, together with Wilson Khayinga and Zinakile Mkaba were hanged in the Pretoria Central Prison. Story goes that Mini walked down the hallowed prison corridor towards the hanger's noose singing "Naants' Indod'Emnyama Pasipo Verwoerd". The next day, one of black prisoners who was facing a normal sentence sent the following entry for the official ANC journal:

"The last evening was devastatingly sad as the heroic occupants of the death cells communicated to the prison in gentle melancholy song that their end was near... It was late at night when the singing ceased, and the prison fell into uneasy silence. I was already awake when the singing began again in the early morning. Once again the excruciatingly beautiful music floated through the barred windows, echoing round the brick exercise yard, losing itself in the vast prison yards.

And then, unexpectedly, the voice of Vuyisile Mini came roaring down the hushed passages. Evidently standing on a stool, with his face reaching up to a barred vent in his cell, his unmistakable bass voice was enunciating his final message in Xhosa to the world he was leaving. In a voice charged with emotion but stubbornly defiant he spoke of the struggle waged by the African National Congress and of his absolute conviction of the victory to come. And then it was Khayinga's turn, followed by Mkaba, as they too defied all prison rules to shout out their valedictions. Soon after, I heard the door of their cell being opened. Murmuring voices reached my straining ears, and then the three martyrs broke into a final poignant melody which seemed to fill the whole prison with sound and then gradually faded away into the distant depths of the condemned section."

Now, you can listen Mariam Makeba's rendition of Naants' Indod'Emnyama - and imagine it sung with baritone voice of a black man stomping his feet, with pride and defiance, on his way to confronting death. May the Lord Rest His Soul in Peace.

The Math of Breaking Up

2010-05-20T01:47:00.003+03:00

From PhysOrg.com: Most people know love takes work, and effort is needed to sustain a happy relationship over the long term, but now a mathematician in Spain has for the first time explained it mathematically by developing a dynamical mathematical model based on the second law of thermodynamics to model "sentimental dynamics." The results are consistent with sociological data on marriage breakdowns.

The model produces a plausible scenario, through a sequence of effort inattentions, for the deterioration of a relationship in a gradual form, which seems to be typical according to data. Because of the effort gap, there is a tendency to lower the right effort level. Then the intrinsic instability of sentimental dynamics obeying the second law causes the piecewise decaying trajectories to move further and further away from the target trajectory and eventually to cross the threshold level xmin. This is considered a point of pre-rupture, since it is a matter of time before effort is abandoned.

Back to Basics

2010-05-18T08:06:00.002+03:00

Corruption: lack of integrity or honesty; use of a position of trust for dishonest gain

What went down in Rwanda before 1994?

2010-05-17T09:39:00.004+03:00

I ran into excerpts of this book, and it has some fine, well researched observations on the Rwanda Genocide contrary to the public opinions.

Enjoy

To accept the standard model of “The Genocide,” one must ignore the large-scale killing and ethnic cleansing of Hutus by the RPF long before the April-July 1994 period, which began when Ugandan forces invaded Rwanda under President (and dictator) Yoweri Museveni on October 1, 1990. At its inception, the RPF was a wing of the Ugandan army, the RPF’s leader, Paul Kagame, having served as director of Ugandan military intelligence in the 1980s. The Ugandan invasion and resultant combat were not a “civil war,” but rather a clear case of aggression. However, the invasion led to no reprimand or cessation of support by the United States or Britain—and, in contrast to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait just two months before, which was countered in the Security Council by a same-day demand that Iraq withdraw its forces immediately—the Council took no action on the Ugandan invasion of Rwanda until March 1993. It did not even authorize an observer mission (UNOMUR) until late June 1993, the RPF by then having occupied much of northern Rwanda and driven out several hundred thousand Hutu farmers.

Paul Kagame and the RPF were creatures of U.S. power from their origins in Uganda in the 1980s. Allan Stam, a Rwanda scholar who once served with the U.S. Army Special Forces, notes that Kagame “had spent some time at Fort Leavenworth…not too far before the 1994 genocide.” Fort Leavenworth is the U.S. Army’s “commander general staff college…where rising stars of the U.S. military and other places go to get training as they are on track to become generals. The training that they get there is on planning large scale operations. It’s not planning small-scale logistic things. It’s not tactics. It’s about how do you plan an invasion. And apparently [Kagame] did very well.”

By 1994, Kagame’s RPF possessed, in addition to the necessary manpower and material, a sophisticated plan for seizing power in Rwanda that, in its final execution, Stam says, “looks staggeringly like the United States’ invasion of Iraq in 1991.” Stam adds that the RPF launched its final assault on the Rwandan government almost immediately after the assassination of Habyarimana, within 60 to 120 minutes of the shooting-down of his jet, with “50,000 [RPF] soldiers mov[ing] into action on two fronts, in a coordinated fashion”—clearly “a plan that was not worked out on the back of an envelope

More excerpts

Very big lies about Rwanda are now institutionalized and are part of the common (mis)understanding in the West. In reality, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame is one of the great mass murderers of our time, far surpassing Uganda’s former dictator Idi Amin.41 Yet, thanks to the remarkable myth structure that surrounds him, he enjoys immense popularity with his chief patron in Washington, his image of big-time killer transmuted into that of an honored savior, deserving strong Western support. Philip Gourevitch, one of Kagame’s prime apologists for many years, portrays him as an emancipator, a “man of action with an acute human and political intelligence,” who “made things happen.” He also compares Kagame to “another famously tall and skinny civil warrior, Abraham Lincoln.”42 A more recent hagiography by Stephen Kinzer portrays Kagame as the founding father of a New Africa, “one of the most amazing untold stories of the modern history of revolution,” as Kinzer explains it, because Kagame overthrew a dictatorship, stopped a genocide, and turned Rwanda into “one of the great stars” of the continent, with Western investment and favorable PR flowing.43 In fact, what Kagame overthrew was a multiethnic, power-sharing, coalition government; what Kagame imposed was a Tutsi-dominated dictatorship; and what Kagame turned Rwanda and the whole of Central Africa into was a rolling genocide that is ongoing. But it is true that he is a shining “star” in the Western firmament and its propaganda system

One more

The Pentagon has very actively supported these invasions of the DRC, even more heavily than it supported the RPF’s drive to take Kigali. This support led to the killing of many thousands of Hutu refugees in a series of mass slaughters (ca. 1994-1997), and also provided cover for a greater series of Kagame-Museveni assaults on the DRC that have destabilized life in this large country of perhaps sixty million people, with millions perishing in the process.56 In his letter of resignation to Chief Prosecutor Hassan Jallow, Filip Rentjens, a Dutch academic and one-time expert witness before the ICTR, took issue with the “impunity” that protects the RPF leadership from prosecution. “[RPF] crimes fall squarely within the mandate of the ICTR,” he wrote. “[T]hey are well documented, testimonial and material proof is available, and the identity of the RPF suspects is known….It is precisely because the regime in Kigali has been given a sense of impunity that, during the years following 1994, it has committed massive internationally recognized crimes in both Rwanda and the DRC

The rest of excerpts are here

What is the role of government?

2010-05-11T23:04:00.003+03:00

There is always ambiguity on a truer role of a government. Most of the disagreements are ideological, but practically, what is the role of an effective government? The governor of Montana Brian Schweitzer whose state is among only two in US running budget surplus on his take on a role of a government.

The tea party people get up in the morning and they make phone calls to each other that they‘re going to go to a rally. And they use a subsidized telephone system. Then they drive down a road that was built by the government that is protected by government workers called highway patrolmen.
They get to a rally and they carry their signs and they are protected by the firemen and the policemen who are in that town. And then they eagerly drive home and say, “It was a success". We‘re against the government.

So you have got to have government that works. In Montana, we‘re one of the two states that have a surplus. We have $400 million in the bank. But I‘m still challenging expenses. I‘m not cutting government. We‘re challenging expenses of government, the same way a small businesses and some big businesses all over the country are. It‘s not a sin to be frugal. It‘s not a sin to challenge expenses. But it is a sin to cut back on education for our most valuableresource. And when we‘re expected to keep people in prison, we should keep them in prison. Don‘t turn them loose because, well, you‘ve got a bad budget. That‘s government that doesn‘t work.

Social experiments to fight poverty

2010-05-09T22:11:00.004+03:00

A good talk by this brilliant economist. She is basically using good old randomized trials to provide ground evidence for social policies.

Another Quiet Epidemic in Tanzania

2010-05-01T11:55:00.002+03:00

There is unnoticed epidemic of diabetes creeping up in Tanzania as well as in other low income countries. Few practitioners in Dar have cautiously voiced their grave concerns in this new epidemiological trend. Kwamba, eventually we will have to address the growing morbidity and mortality rates of chronic non-infectious diseases. Of which our health systems have been understandably ignoring because of the burden of infectious diseases. I have been trying to figure out what has happened that wabongo are getting diabetes in high numbers. It is important to figure this out right away because chronic diseases are expensive to manage, and prevention is always the best approach. Besides, our healthcare system is so crippled that once this Diabetes thing has caught full steam, we are toast.

I have noticed that 1)we consume a lot of sugar, baiskeli za Azam Ice-Cream zipo kila kona, and they are dirt cheap. Na joto hili la bongo, it makes sense for people to go overboard on sugar. Same as soda, na juice baridi, which are available kwenye kila kona ya nchi. 2) There is are link between TB and Diabetes—kwamba if you are infected with TB (not necessarily diseased) it changes carbohydrates mechanism and lead to impaired glucose tolerance. Essentially, having infected with TB, it increases your risk of getting diabetes. This is an interesting finding because Bongo is a TB endemic country, and chances are majority of us are infected with TB (Latent TB). I’m sure most of us have positive Mantoux test, I know I am. It makes sense that as we consume so much sugar and majority of us have the TB infection, diabetes epidemic is inevitable.

Moving forward, MOH has to start a countrywide surveillance on new and old Diabetes cases, so as we can have the data ready for future studies. And initiating bottom-up community awareness campaign on diabetes, people have to understand the implications of going overboard on sugar especially, when they are already at risk. Obviously there are other risks for Diabetes that will also have to be addressed as well, but it has to start now, because we simply cannot afford another epidemic.

The economic incentive of a dala dala driver.

2010-04-29T23:06:00.003+03:00

The Drivers of the dala dalas in Dar have only one incentive; to make more than TZS 100,000.00 a day. Yes, that is the sum total a dala dala driver is required to bring to his boss - the owner of the those ubiquitous little traveling machines. Anything earned above that amount goes first towards fuel and then the remainder is split with the conductor. This TZS 100,000 offers a strange incentive for the rest of us on the road. The dala dala driver knows he must hand over that bottom line figure each day in order for him to keep his job. So to him nothing else matters, regardless of the consequences he will always race, slow down, over take or block other cars in order for him (and always a male) to get the next passenger, or in his mind the next opportunity to top off that TZS 100,000 for his own income. But please do not start pointing the finger to the bus drivers alone in the city. This behavior is aided by two other economic agents: the bus owner and the traffic police.

The bus owner is in business to make money. So he also does not care what may come. He is not concerned with his drivers following road safety, navigating treacherous, rain-soaked streets, or even letting a pedestrian cross at the cross-walk. For the bus owner, what matters most is that TZS 100,000.00 a day. A dala dala driver might suffer if he does not deliver that bottom line amount, but he will never get in trouble from the owner if he fails to follow driving laws. It’s an incentive that, in fact, encourages the driver to be egregiously inconsiderate to wellbeing of others on the road.

As incongruous as it sounds, the traffic police (the very people whose job it is to keep drivers protected and traffic safe) are utterly corrupt. That corruption provides a sense of security only to the dala dala drivers, who know that they can bribe their way out of any situation. Safe in the knowledge that there is no need to follow traffic laws, they can be as maniacal as they want on the road, all in the name of topping off that TZS 100,000. In fact, the traffic police have reached such an extreme level of corruption that their bosses saw the need to outsource their job! They brought in the Majembe Auction Mart to put a noose on the dala dala driver’s head. Unfortunately, that outsourcing did not pay off. The incentive of the Majembe is not safety or an orderly transportation system, but to arrest as many of the death vehicles as possible so they can get paid.

The result of the above scenario is a serious assault on a precious public good – road safety.

As I am writing this more people are being killed on the road because dala dalas, large trucks, bajajes, and taxi drivers know no boundaries in their pursuit of a little profit. A study published by the East African News Paper in March ranked Tanzania as the second highest in East and Central Africa for deaths caused by road accidents.

The problem of having a transportation system where buses are run by individual owners is that their incentives and those of their agents will never align with the needs of public safety. Safety requires players to sacrifice a small piece of their profit for the greater good? Is that possible when one individual’s bottom line is the only incentive? Is there a way to avoid buses overtaking each other on a single lane road just to get another TZS 500 first? Is there a way to avoid buses stopping traffic to pick a passenger in the middle of the street rather than the official bus stops? Is there a way to prevent the disregard for others on the road when the only incentive is individual profit?

That is why developed societies always have bus companies provide service to the city dwellers. Under the system of a bus company, it does not matter which bus picked up a particular passenger because all drivers are motivated to serve the same owner – the shareholder. Consistent and adequate salaries further encourage drivers to focus on safety rather than mad dashes for profit. With a bus company, the incentive is to remain safe so that the company can have as many passengers as possible.

The new Dar es Salaam bus system, DART, has been in planning for the last five years, waiting to replace the defunct UDA. Every time a new report comes out to explain reasons for its delay, it is so cumbersome it reminds you of Andy Cap and the drinking gang. If these death machines are running for decades now they must be profitable to the owners. Why not just force the same owners to form a company and list it in the stock exchange. Furthermore, the government could issue bonds through a municipality to increase the capital of the company. That way there would be ample funds to modernize the system. These bonds could be paid back using ticket money and renting out vital “moving” space to the advertisers. If the fairy godfather (i.e. world bank) wants to help, they can help. They can go to the market and buy some of those shares!

The Fog

2010-04-28T15:26:00.001+03:00

Africa-China Relationship

2010-04-22T02:39:00.004+03:00

Recently China has anted up her investments in Africa, and it has opened up a great debate among folks who are interested in these issues. This months Atlantic magazine has a very balanced read on Chinese investment in Africa that is worthy of checking it out.

Some excerpts

The problem is to determine what is Africa’s place in the future of the global economy, and up to now, we have seen very little that is new. China is taking the place of the West: they take our raw materials and they sell finished goods to the world What Africans are getting in exchange, whether it is roads or schools or finished goods, doesn’t really matter. We remain under the same old schema: our cobalt goes off to China in the form of dusty ore and returns here in the form of expensive batteries

But also

“Statistics are hard to come by, but China is probably the biggest single investor in Africa,” said Martyn Davies, the director of the China Africa Network at the University of Pretoria. “They are the biggest builders of infrastructure. They are the biggest lenders to Africa, and China-Africa trade has just pushed past $100 billion annually.”

Davies calls the Chinese boom “a phenomenal success story for Africa,” and sees it continuing indefinitely. “Africa is the source of at least one-third of the world’s commodities”—commodities China will need, as its manufacturing economy continues to grow—“and once you’ve understood that, you understand China’s determination to build roads, ports, and railroads all over Africa.”

Everywhere I traveled in Africa, people spoke in defense of conditionality—the attachment of good-governance strings to loans from the West. “Many people look at Western conditions as a good thing, because nowadays so many things can be discussed openly, unlike the past—like corruption, for example,” said John Kulekana, a veteran Tanzanian journalist. “There are no more demigods here, and that is because of the growth of civil society, which has received lots of help from the West. Former ministers are called to account for their behavior. We are building accountability.”

The fact that China model of developing Africa neglect accountability from local government is troubling, because only with a strong government real development can be achieved. Westerners imposing conditions on loans (apart from lending to Mobutu) is an attempt to improve governance that Chinese seems not to care much about

Few Zambians have been lifted into the middle class by Chinese mining activity, and today, Sata remains unrelenting in his criticisms of China. “Our [Chinese] friends are too numerous, and we know their resources cannot sustain them,” Sata told me in his Lusaka office, taking phone calls from constituents and filling out a lottery card as he reeled off a catalog of reproaches. “Zambians do not need labor being dumped here. The Chinese are scattering all over the world, but there is no such thing as Chinese investment, as such. What we’re seeing is Chinese parastatals and government interests, and they are corrupting our leaders.”

“The idea that big influxes of wealth will help Africa has never really panned out,” Patrick Keenan, an Africa specialist at the University of Illinois, told me. “When the path to wealth goes through the presidential palace, there are enormous incentives to obtaining power and to holding on to it. This kind of wealth incites politicians to create economically wasteful projects, and it relieves them of the need to make politically difficult choices, like broadening the tax base.”

I welcome Chinese approach in investing in Africa, but it has to be done in ways that do not deviate from simple rules of economics. Building schools, and roads are noble things, but who is going to teach the kids and how are the roads going to be maintained in the future? The noble way will be to transfer knowledge to local people, so as they can sustain themselves. China's way is to have their own firms and their own workers doing the work. And the worst part is they take raw materials (not refined products) to their country for further processing. This is the same process that took place in Africa during colonialism.

What do you guys think about this?

The whole article is here
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/05/the-next-empire/8018

Ani DiFranco

2010-04-21T11:01:00.004+03:00

I saw her performing about ten years ago and fell in love with her. She is cool, down-to-earth, a feminist icon for many young women (in America). Her lyrics are sophisticated, her voice unique, her fingers versatile on strings. Enjoy!

Of Juju and the Books...

2010-04-18T18:08:00.010+03:00

Pew Research Centre, a reputable opinion research outfit, has released one of the detailed surveys so far on Africans attitudes towards religion and morality. The survey reveals some very interesting facts about Africans, and Tanzanians in particular.

93 percent of Tanzanians believe in witchcraft, making us leaders in Africa in this sphere (we beat the Congolese and the Nigerians) and 80 percent of Tanzanians say that Western film, music and television is hurting morality in society. More poignantly, 62 percent of Christians believe Jesus will return during their lifetime.

I trust Pew Centre, but I am skeptical about the 93 percent. There is a distinction between "belief" in witchcraft and "practice" in witchcraft. It may be true that 93 of Tanzanians believe that witchcraft exist, but without necessarily subscribing to it or seeking its magic. Still, these numbers cannot be without significance to society.

The entire research publication can be found at http://pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=515

Kumbe, the basis of all computing (binary code) is Africa!

2010-04-16T20:51:00.003+03:00

This is one of the most interesting talks I have seen on the web. Its worth watching if you are interested in mathematics and culture and Africa.

Making Democracy Work

2010-04-16T20:25:00.005+03:00

A few years ago, I read a book called Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy by Robert Putnam (also author of the famed Bowling Alone). The book is more or less a compendium of an in-depth research on the performance of regional governments in Italy (after devolution reforms in 1968) undertaken over a period of 20 years.

With sweeping effort, patience, exercise in cultural immersion, and some useful data, Putnam undertook to study why regional governments of similar structure and resources performed much better in northern Italy (a much developed part of Italy - "a real Europe") than in Southern Italy (less developed part of Italy - "almost like Africa").

While I disagree with some of the conclusions, I have come to appreciate the findings of the research in recent years as I reflect more and more about society and our [individual and collective] roles in advancing it.

Putnam and his partners conclude that [government] institutions, however perfectly designed, cannot work if people are disengaged from the society. There has to be civil society first (in a real, not "HakiElimu" or "TAMWA", sense) before there can be effective government (as opposed to the current fashion/thinking advanced by donors of "creating a civil society" out of some bright and smooth-talking people to "contend with" governments particularly in developing countries). Civil society has to emerge organically from voluntary social interactions and networks in the society. Social capital need to exist before people can place trust and cooperate with Leviathan.

The bottom line is that norms, trust and networks engender a society which eventually lead to an effective government. Socio-economic development or transformation cannot take place if the level of "civicness" in the society is low. At one point in the book, Putnam argues that "economics does not predict civics, but civics does predict economics, better than economics itself."

I revisit the book in the context of another survey in Tanzania, the 2007 Poverty and Human Development Report, conducted by as part of MKUKUTA progress monitoring process, which found that 78 percent of Tanzanians do not trust each other. Yes, 78 percent. If, as it is, trust is central to the functioning of market economy, how do we move forward with these numbers? If Big Bang democratisation - demonstrated partly by donors' obsession with creating "a contentious" political environment by, for instance, paying to advance strong labour unions, vocal media, and so on, a civil society by checkbook, if you will - does not consider the nourishment of a sense of civic community which ought to be a centerpiece of progress.

Perhaps we must not accept Putnam's ideas at face value. May be his ideas on democracy and progress are too Tocquevillean, that civic virtues are preeminent in our countries, and that the under-perfomance of government is simply a managerial issue.

Rochereau, Mbilia and Faya

2010-04-16T02:19:00.006+03:00

Some sounds and images define an era. Growing up, and following music at an early age, the images, sounds and rise and fall of one of the most popular bands in Africa in 1980s, l'Orchestre Afrisa International, partly enchanted my boyhood. The two ladies made Afrisa a hit but also contributed to its collapse as Tabu Ley could not manage to keep the two of them happy at the same time (or level). Mbilia Bel was the original diva of Congolese music, and Faya Tess came to Afrisa as a backup singer and dancer but proved capable of taking the front mikes with grace. Suddenly, Mbilia looked indispensable. All three - Tabu Ley, Mbilia Bel, and Faya Tess - attempted solo careers without much success. Faya Tess released one album in 1999 (which the song Adieu comes from). Despite getting help on the album by Africa's greatest guitarist and songwriter/composer, Dino Vangu, her solo career never blossomed. Enjoy the sounds.

Scaling up Human Resources for Health in Tanzania

2010-04-12T22:59:00.002+03:00

I came through a research paper that has tried to estimate the needed Human Resource for Health (HRH) in Tanzania by year 2015. The numbers are big, and I doubt at our current pace we can achieve them. But I should point out that in Africa; we are doing pretty well as far as amount of healthcare workers. Many countries in the continent are in a deeper healthcare workforce crisis, and they lose more workers who run to rich countries.

Here is the chart, Courtesy of Chris Kurowski and Dr. Salim of IHI and colleagues who did this research back in 2007 (http://heapol.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/22/3/113)

Estimates of Human Resources for Health availability and requirements in 2015, likely scenario

Group of cadres	HRH_A	HRH_R	HRH_A – HRH_R	HRH_A / HRH_R

Health professionals, PPR	28 600	115 700	(87 100)	25%
Nurses and midwives	17 700	49 200	(31 500)	36%
Nurses other than community nurses	9 600	34 700	(25 100)	28%
Community nurses	1 900	6 900	(5 000)	28%
Midwives	6 200	7 600	(1 400)	82%
Clinical and medical professionals	8 200	48 500	(40 300)	17%
Clinical professionals	5 800	36 100	(30 300)	16%
Medical professionals	2 300	12 300	(10 000)	19%
Technicians	2 700	18 100	(15 400)	15%
Radiological technicians	300	500	(200)	60%
Laboratory technicians	2 000	11 700	(9 700)	17%
Pharmacological technicians	400	5 900	(5 500)	7%
Assistant health workers	18 200	8 700	9 500	209%
Health professionals, PPNR	2 300	–	2 300	–
Health professionals and assistant health workers	49 100	124 400	(75 300)	39%

Brackets indicate negative values.

HRH_A = human resources for health availability; HRH_R = human resources for health requirements; PPR = priority package relevant; PPNR = priority package not relevant.

Things have got worse because now we are treating HIV positives, putting more pressure on our health systems by adding more needy patients every day that have to be actively surveyed . Adding up HRH needed for Malaria control, a revamped TB endemic due to HIV, and other acute diseases. Clinicians in Dar would also tell you that Diabetes is massively unnoticed. All these adds up to an already overwhelmed healthcare system. Moving forward, it doesn’t matter how much money donors give us. If MOH cannot take bold initiatives to strengthen our healthcare systems, we are doomed. Creating incentives to increase retention rates is a good starting step. Increasing number of pre-service trainees is a more sustainable approach, but the recurrent costs (salary and benefits) will need a hefty economic growth in the next few years—otherwise we can’t afford to scale up. Donors will have to commit for at least 5-10 years to cover the recurrent costs while we are hoping for an economic growth. This can be done now since IMF has removed wage bill ceilings in public spending. In mean time, Ministry of Education has to tweak the curriculum especially for nurses and medical officers to have them graduate faster. And MOH has to implement task shifting to alleviate burden from Physicians and other high end professionals. But adopting these policies won’t be enough if our facilities aren’t equipped enough; again we need a commitment from government not to have ghost hospitals and health centers anymore. Financing all these is a monumental task. Engaging private sector, donors, government spending, fee for services, taxes, or trying to keep inflation down to lower prices of food and fuel and hoping folks will increase their healthcare spending.

Healthcare is often overlooked in development issues, but the truth is people won’t be productive if they are sick. Poverty and healthcare form a vicious circle that politicians do not seem to understand. If a substantial number of our children don’t reach age 5, our middle age group perishes because of NGOMA, and our older adult can’t survive a heart attack or a benign cancer then what is the point of searching for maendeleo?

Oversold?

2010-04-08T10:00:00.003+03:00

The book The Shack has been a publishing phenomenon over the past couple of years. I have received it as a present from two different friends - both insisting that it is "a must read". Some people claim to have found purpose in life after reading the book. The book centers on the question of faith as the main character, filled with doubt and pain, confronts and talks to God in His different personas.

I have not finished the book yet - and the reason is that it has not gotten to me to compel me to turn pages quickly. Perhaps it has to do with my own doubts and questions about faith. I hope, in the end, as I finish the book, I will arrive at an obvious conclusion: doubt is key to faith.